Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bet 8/4/22

by | Last updated Aug 26, 2022 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Thursday August 4th, 12:35 ET

Location: PNC Park

TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin

Money Line: Brewers -240 / Pirates +195

Total Line: 8.0


Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff (9-3, 3.55)
Pittsburgh: Zach Thompson (3-8, 5.09)

Brewers Projected Lineup

Luis Urías 2B
Omar Narváez C
Kolten Wong 2B
Hunter Renfroe RF
Tyrone Taylor CF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Andrew McCutchen LF
Christian Yelich LF
Willy Adames SS
Brandon Woodruff P

Pirates Projected Lineup

Ben Gamel RF
Oneil Cruz SS
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Greg Allen LF
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Jason Delay C
Michael Chavis 1B
Kevin Newman 2B
Bryan Reynolds CF
Zach Thompson P


Milwaukee Brewers: 57-47-0 SU / OU 53-46-5 / Run Line W/L 44-60-0
Pittsburgh Pirates: 42-62-0 SU / OU 43-54-7 / Run Line W/L 54-50-0

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday August 4th at PNC Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 12:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-240), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Brewers will look to rebound from a close, 8-7 loss to the Pirates. In the loss, Milwaukee’s pitchers gave up 8 runs on 12 hits. The Brewers ended the game with 12 hits of their own, leading to 7 runs. This defeat came despite being favored at -210.0. Through 87 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 56.9%. With the over-under line set at 8.5 runs, the Brewers and Pirates combined to go over this total. Milwaukee has had more than half of their games go over the over-under line (53-46-5).

Over the Brewers’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at 0. In their last 5 contests, Milwaukee is averaging 5.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.65. So far, Milwaukee has won over half of their 34 series played, going 16-12-6.

The Pirates are coming off a tight 8-7 win over the Brewers. On their way to giving up 7 runs, the Pirates staff allowed 12 hits. In the victory, the Pirates came up with 12 hits and 8 runs. This was a good win for the Pirates, as they were underdogs at 170.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 86 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 36.0%. In terms of the over-under, the Pirates and Brewers combined to surpass the line of 8.5 runs. So far, Pittsburgh has an over-under record of just 43-54-7.

The Pirates come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -6. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.6 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 3.62. Pittsburgh has a below .500 series record of just 9-18-7.

Pitching Matchup

Milwaukee will roll with Brandon Woodruff (9-3) as their starter. To date, Woodruff has an ERA of 3.55 while lasting an average of 5.21 innings per appearance. Through 15 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.224. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.81 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Per game, Brandon Woodruff is averaging 6.73, on a strikeout percentage of 31.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.75 walks per outing.

Zach Thompson gets the start for the Pirates, with an overall record of 3-8. Thompson gets the start with an ERA of 5.09. On average, he has lasted 4.51 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.27. Home runs have been an issue for Thompson, as he is allowing an average of 1.55 per 9 innings pitched. Overall, he is averaging 3.06 per game, on a K rate of 15.0%. Command has been a problem for Thompson, as he is giving up 3.54 walks per outing.

Milwaukee vs Pittsburgh History

Today’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates will be their 16th meeting of the season. Milwaukee has the lead in the series at 9-6. The over-under record in this series sits at 7-8. The average run total in these games is 9.11 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.13 runs. Last season, Milwaukee picked up the series win, 14 games to 5. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-8. Last year, the Brewers and Pirates averaged 9.11 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.89 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
  • The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee’s last 12 games
  • Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s National League Central matchup between Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, the Brewers are the heavy favorite to pick up the win. This comes despite the Pirates winning each of the last 2 contests, going through 2 of Milwaukee’s best starting pitchers. But, with Zach Thompson on the mound, look for the Brewers to come away with a multiple run win and salvage 1 game of the series.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers -1.5 Runline

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