Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers Runline Pick

by | Jul 27, 2022 | mlb

Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers

Date: Wednesday July 27th, 02:10 ET

Location: American Family Field

TV: YouTube

Money Line: Twins +156 / Brewers -190 (MyBookie)

Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Minnesota: Chris Archer (2-4, 3.41)
Milwaukee: Corbin Burnes (7-4, 2.2)

Twins Projected Lineup

Jose Miranda 1B
Gio Urshela 3B
Jorge Polanco 2B
Max Kepler RF
Alex Kirilloff RF
Gary Sánchez C
Byron Buxton CF
Luis Arraez 1B
Carlos Correa SS
Chris Archer P

Brewers Projected Lineup

Luis Urías 3B
Mike Brosseau 1B
Tyrone Taylor CF
Hunter Renfroe RF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Victor Caratini C
Andrew McCutchen LF
Christian Yelich LF
Willy Adames SS
Corbin Burnes P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Minnesota Twins: 52-45-0 SU / OU 46-44-7 / Run Line W/L 44-53-0
Milwaukee Brewers: 54-44-0 SU / OU 49-44-5 / Run Line W/L 41-57-0

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday, July 27th, at American Family Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-190), with an OU line set at 8.0.

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Recent Form

The Twins will look to rebound from a close, 7-6 loss to the Brewers. In the loss, Minnesota’s pitchers gave up 7 runs on 11 hits. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 7 hits. The loss came as Minnesota was the betting underdog, getting 101.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Twins and Brewers combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 9.0 runs. Minnesota now has an over-under record of 46-44-7.

In the Twins’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +3. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 5.8 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.58. So far, Minnesota has won over half of their 31 series played, going 15-11-5.

The Brewers will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Twins by a score of 7-6. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 7 hits, leading to 6 runs. At the plate, the Brewers scored 7 times on 11 hits. Heading into action, Milwaukee was the favorite at -111.0. So far, the team has won 57.9% of the games in which they were favored. The Brewers and Twins went over the run total line set at 9.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 49-44-5.

In their last 5 games, the Brewers have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +6. The Brewers’ offense has elevated their play over their last 5 games, averaging 6.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.58. On the season, Milwaukee has won more than half of their series, going 15-11-6.

Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send Chris Archer to the mound with an overall record of 2-4. So far, Archer has put together an ERA of 3.41. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.12 innings. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.212 against Archer. Archer is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 1.09 per 9 innings. This season, he has struck out 18.0 of the batters he has faced. This has led to a per-game average of 3.25. Command has been a problem for Archer, as he is giving up 4.23 walks per outing.

Milwaukee will roll with Corbin Burnes (7-4) as their starter. In his previous outings, Burnes has lasted an average of 6.22 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.2. So far, batters are hitting just 0.186 against him. Burnes is allowing home runs at a rate of 0.99 per 9 innings. Overall, Corbin Burnes has struck out 32.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 7.84 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.35 walks per outing.

Minnesota vs Milwaukee History

For the season, the Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers will be playing their 4th game of the season. Currently, Milwaukee is winning the season series 2-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-2. The average run total in these games is 7.17 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.33 runs. Last season, Minnesota picked up the series win, 4 games to 2. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 2-3, with the average run total being 7.17 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.83 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 5 games on the road
  • Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s interleague matchup between Minnesota and Milwaukee, the Brewers are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Even though last night’s matchup featured a lot of scoring, I expect Corbin Burnes to continue his strong season by shutting down the Twins. Look for the Brewers to cover the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers -1.5 Runline

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