MLB Picks: Brewers vs. Cubs 8/13/20

by | Aug 13, 2020 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (7-9) vs. Chicago Cubs (12-3), 8/13/20

Time: 7:15 pm ET Thursday, Aug. 13

Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Listed Pitchers: Yu Darvish (2-1, 2.12) vs. Brett Anderson (0-1, 5.40)

TV: Fox

Moneyline: Brewers +160/Cubs -180 (Bovada - 50% Bonus + Credit cards work for deposits!)

Over/Under: NA

The Cubs are off to a great start to this abbreviated MLB season, while the Brewers are scuffling a bit, heading into the opener of this four-game NL Central rivalry series at Wrigley Field Thursday night. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened the Cubs and Darvish at around -180 over Milwaukee and Anderson, and that figure was holding steady in early betting action. Chicago could also be found at around +100, giving the 1.5 runs on the MLB run line.

Brewers vs. Cubs Set-Up

Milwaukee dropped two of three games at home to Minnesota, losing Wednesday’s series rubber match 12-2. Just before that, the Brewers lost two of three at home to Cincinnati.

At 7-9 overall the Brewers are tied with the Reds for third place in the NL Central, five games behind the first-place Cubs but only a half-game behind the second-place Cardinals. And second place gets you in the playoffs this season.

Meanwhile, Chicago just swept two games from the Indians in Cleveland, winning Wednesday’s series finale 7-2. Just before that, the Cubs took three of four games from Kansas City, and just before that, they swept three games from Pittsburgh.

So with Wednesday’s win Chicago is 8-1 over its last nine games.

At 12-3 overall the Cubs lead the NL Central by five games over second-place St. Louis, and they lead Colorado by a game and a half in the battle for the best record in the National League.

Chicago went off this season playing against a “season wins” over/under of 32.5. So those who bet that over must be very pleased with the Cubs’ nice start.

Milwaukee is playing against a win O/U of 31. And right now, that looks like a significant number for the Brewers.

Last year Milwaukee took the season series from Chicago 10 games to nine.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Darvish is 2/3 on quality starts this season. Last time out, eight days ago, he held Kansas City to one run and five hits through seven innings in a 6-1 Chicago victory. And just before that, he threw six scoreless innings against Pittsburgh in a 6-3 Cubs win.

On the season, Darvish has allowed four runs and 13 hits – zero home runs – through 17 innings, with two walks and 16 strikeouts. Chicago is 2-1 with Darvish this year.

Over his last three starts against Milwaukee – two last year and one back on July 25 of this season – Darvish gave up four runs and 14 hits through 14 innings, with one walk and 20 whiffs.

Lefty Anderson is 0/2 on quality starts this season. In his debut for his new team ten days ago, he gave up two runs on five hits through three innings of a 6-4 Brewers loss to the White Sox. Then last Saturday he gave up three runs – two earned - and four hits through just 3 2/3 innings of a 4-1 Milwaukee loss to Cincinnati.

So on the season, Anderson has allowed four ER and nine hits through 6 2/3 innings, and the Brewers are 0-2 with him.

Last year, in one start against the Cubs while with Oakland, Anderson only allowed two runs on seven hits through six innings of an 11-4 A’s victory.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting just .214 this season against right-handed pitching, with a .295 team OBP and a .352 team slugging percentage. The Brewers have also been held to three runs or less six times over their last nine games.

Chicago is batting .234 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .354 OBP and a .366 slugging percentage. The Cubs have also scored at least five runs four times over their last five games.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Milwaukee is 5-3 on the road this season.
  • Chicago is 7-1 at home this season.
  • Milwaukee is 4-7 vs. right-handed starters this season.
  • Chicago is 4-0 vs. left-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 8-7 in Brewers games this season.
  • Overs are 8-7 in Cubs games this season.
  • Unders played 12-6-1 in Brewers-Cubs games last season, 7-1-1 at Wrigley Field.
  • Unders are 5-3 in games played at Wrigley Field this season.

Free MLB Pick

Chicago is hot, while Milwaukee is scuffling, and trends like those mean a lot to us when it comes to handicapping baseball games. So we like the Cubs here. And with Chicago scoring runs as of late, while Brewers bats struggle, we’ll give the run and a half and play the Cubbies against the run line.