MLB Picks: Rangers vs. Astros 5/22/22

by | Last updated May 22, 2022 | mlb

Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros
Date: Sunday, May 22nd, 02:10 ET
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: Bally Sports Southwest
Money Line: Rangers +153 / Astros -185 (WagerWeb)
Total Line: 8.5


Texas: Taylor Hearn (2-2, 5.46)
Houston: Jose Urquidy (3-1, 4.81)

Rangers Projected Lineup

Jonah Heim C
Nate Lowe 1B
Kole Calhoun RF
Mitch Garver C
Andy Ibanez 3B
Corey Seager SS
Adolis Garcia CF
Brad Miller LF
Marcus Semien 2B
Taylor Hearn P

Astros Projected Lineup

Jeremy Peña SS
Chas McCormick CF
Yuli Gurriel 1B
Kyle Tucker RF
Alex Bregman 3B
Martín Maldonado C
Yordan Alvarez LF
Jose Altuve 2B
Michael Brantley LF
Jose Urquidy P


Texas Rangers: 18-21-0 SU / OU 17-18-4 / Run Line W/L 24-15-0
Houston Astros: 26-15-0 SU / OU 11-30-0 / Run Line W/L 21-20-0

The Houston Astros host the Texas Rangers on Sunday, May 22nd at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-185), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Houston (2-1), the Rangers will look to get back in the win column. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 2 runs while allowing 6 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 1 run on 10 hits. Texas’s loss came as the underdog, getting 190.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. This outcome pushed Texas’s over-under record further below .500 at 17-18-4.

In the Rangers’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. During this time, they have an average scoring differential 4. Texas’s offense heads into action averaging 4.2 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.08. Texas’s overall series record is just 5-8-0.

In their last game, the Astros picked up a close win over the Rangers by a score of 2-1. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Rangers to 1 run and 10 hits. At the plate, the Astros only came through for 2 runs on 6 hits. Heading into action, Houston was the favorite at -230.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 32 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. Combined, the Astros and the Rangers’ run total fell below the OU line of 7.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 11-30-0.

Across their last 5 contests, the Astros are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of 7 (last 5). Houston is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.2 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.27. On the season, Houston has won more than half of their series, going 7-5-1.


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Pitching Matchup

Taylor Hearn gets the start for the Rangers, with an overall record of 2-2. To date, Hearn has an ERA of 5.46 while lasting an average of 4.17 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.277. Home runs have been an issue for Hearn, as he is allowing an average of 1.54 per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Taylor Hearn has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 22.0%, while averaging 4.42 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.85 walks per outing.

The Houston Astros will send Jose Urquidy to the mound with an overall record of 3-1. To date, Urquidy has an ERA of 4.81 while lasting an average of 4.74 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.326. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Urquidy, averaging 1.63 homers per 9 innings pitched. Urquidy is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 2.85 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 14.00%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.07 walks per contest.

Texas vs Houston History

For the season, Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will be playing their 7th game of the season. Houston holds the edge in the series at 5-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 0-7. The average run total in these games is 9.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.57 runs. Dating back to last season, the Houston picked up 14 wins compared to 5, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 11-5-3. Last year, the Rangers and Astros averaged 9.84 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.58 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas’s last 5 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games when playing at home against Texas
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games at home

Texas Rangers at Houston Astros Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s matchup, the Houston Astros are once again heavy favorites on the moneyline. This comes despite dropping game 1 of the series and barely pulling out game 2, despite Justin Verlander pitching another gem. Even though the Rangers have won their past 3 games in what Taylor Hearn started, I see that changing in today’s game. I see Houston busting out offensively, leading to a win that covers the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Astros -1.5 Runline

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