New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick 6/30/21

by | Jun 30, 2021 | mlb

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

When: 7:20 p.m., Wednesday, June 30

Where: Trust Park, Atlanta

Moneyline: NYM +135/ATL -145 (GTBets - They’ll match your first deposit dollar for dollar with bonus cash up to $500!)

Runline: Mets +1.5/Braves -1.5

Total: 9

Starting Pitchers: David Peterson (2-5, 4.95 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) vs. Max Fried (4-4, 4.21 ERA, 1.34 WHIP)

This Is What We Came Here For?

On Tuesday night, Atlanta’s basketball team enjoyed playing in front of its fans. Atlanta’s baseball team? Not so much. The Braves got tripped up by the Mets at home, and their frustrating season has continued to be emphasized by the fact that Atlanta simply isn’t getting the job done in front of its own fans. Coming to Cobb County was never about home-field advantage (it was more about marketing and land), but the Braves can’t have expected a season to go the way this one has to this point. So far, Atlanta has been a pedestrian 20-21 at home on the Moneyline, and they’re a nightmarish 13-28 at home on the run line.

Because of that, Atlanta has been one of the worst bets in the National League this season, as the Braves usually find themselves favored at home but aren’t capitalizing the way a favorite should. Among NL teams, the Braves rank 12th in money returned, ahead of only the three teams occupying the respective division basements (Marlins, Pirates, Diamondbacks). The difference is, nobody expected anything from the Pirates, and few thought much of the Diamondbacks. Likewise, everyone expected Atlanta to keep up its winning ways when the Braves came so close to winning the National League pennant last year, but it just hasn’t been the case, in part because the Braves just haven’t played that well at home.

Folding the Aces

Boy, have things gone wrong in a big way for Atlanta’s pocket aces. Max Fried and Mike Soroka were supposed to be the future in Atlanta, the start of the next era of great Braves pitching. But Soroka has had multiple issues staying healthy, and Fried has struggled this season, another big reason why the Braves have failed to find any level of consistency. When Fried has been on his game, Atlanta has been excellent, but too often, Fried has allowed himself to get burned by batters getting the ball in play.
When your fielding isn’t the greatest, any instance of balls being put in play can backfire in a hurry. Fried has never been a great strikeout pitcher, as he averages around one per inning, but the Braves’ fielding hasn’t really gotten the job done this year, and Fried has mostly been putting the ball where a fielder isn’t going to be. The result is that his ERA is higher than it’s been in any previous season, and he’s likely to end up with more losses than in any previous season.

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Underground

New York is well known for the subway, and the Mets are well known for going under their totals. The team from Queens hasn’t been able to hit for quite a while, but the Mets’ pitching has been outstanding in 2021. Peterson has been a bit more inconsistent than some of the Mets’ other arms, but one thing he has done pretty well is cash on the under.

The under has hit in four straight appearances for him, and if he goes at least five innings, it’s a pretty good sign the under is going to cash. In seven starts where he’s gone five innings or more, the under has cashed six times, and the lone exception was an 8-7 win over the Phillies, in which the bullpen imploded and gave up six runs after Peterson held Philadelphia to just one.

Betting Trends

  • The Mets are 6-1 in their past seven Game 2’s of a series.
  • The Mets are 1-5 in their past six games following a win.
  • The Braves are 5-1 in their past six following a loss.
  • The Braves are 7-3 in their past ten against a team with a winning record.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Mets’ past five games following a win.
  • The under is 5-0 in the Braves’ past five contests overall.
  • The Mets are 4-1 in their past five meetings in Atlanta.
  • The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Atlanta.

Weather Report

It’s going to be very warm in Atlanta, with temperatures at 83 degrees at first pitch and wind blowing in four miles per hour from right field.

Dan’s Pick

Something has to give here because the Mets have been very inconsistent at stringing wins together, and the Braves have managed to avoid going on long losing streaks. I’m a little apprehensive about taking the Braves in Atlanta, given their poor home record, but Peterson hasn’t been consistent enough for my tastes in this matchup.
If it were Jacob deGrom going, that’d be one thing, but I’m not trusting the win streak with Peterson. I’ll take Atlanta. Bet your MLB picks FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use promo/bonus code PREDICT100 to get the extra bonus funds credited to your wagering account.)

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