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New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays Pick 7/25/18

by | Jul 25, 2018 | mlb

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays (7/25/18)
Time: 12:10 PM ET
Venue: Tropicana Field
Location: St. Petersburg, Florida
TV: YES Network
Moneyline: New York Yankees (-145) / Tampa Bay Rays (+135)
Over/Under: 8

We have an early afternoon American League East ballgame on tap for you Wednesday afternoon between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. It’s the third and final game of a three-game set at Tropicana Field. The Rays took game one 7-6, and the Yankees blanked the Rays 4-0 in game two Tuesday night. This will be the twelfth meeting on the year between these divisional foes. They’re slated to play 19 times this season, and the Yankees lead the series 6-5 at the moment. New York’s outscored Tampa Bay 49-33 thru the first 11 games but has lost five of the last six meetings. Luis Cessa is the scheduled starter for the Bronx Bombers, while former Yankee Nathan Eovaldi is supposed to toe the rubber for the Rays.

Tanaka shows no mercy

Tuesday night’s performance by Masahiro Tanaka (8-2, 4.09 ERA & 1.06 WHIP) was nothing short of stellar. After enduring a career-worst year in 2017, Tanaka has bounced back handsomely in his 2018 campaign. He threw a three-hit, no-run complete game last night with nine strikeouts and just one walk to earn a shutout victory at the Trop. Tampa Bay Rookie Yonny Chirnos (0-2, 3.78 ERA & 1.23 ERA) took the loss for the Rays despite pitching a solid game. He allowed three earned runs in 6 2/3 innings, giving up six hits but striking out six in the process.

Yankees Catcher Austin Romine (.264 AVG, 6 HR, 28 RBI & .322 OBP) was the most influential offensive performer despite going 0-3 on the night. He recorded an RBI groundout, and RBI-sacrifice fly to tack on two for the Yanks. With starting catcher Gary Sanchez (.188 AVG, 14 HR, 42 RBI & .283 OBP) just placed on the 10-day disabled list with a right groin strain, Romine may become a fixture in the Yankees lineup for several days to come. In fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Yankees underperforming starting catcher was traded in a deal for a desperately need starting pitcher before the trade deadline. Sanchez has been poor in the batter’s box this season, and his effort has often been questioned. Not to mention, he’s a defensive liability to boot.

Overall, the Yankees are 64-35 (.646) this year which places them second in the American League East Standings. They’re only five games behind Division-leading Boston. New York’s 515 runs scored are tied for third-best in the AL, while their 382 runs allowed is second-best in the American League. Their +133 run differential is third-best in the American League, and the Bronx Bombers are 30-21 (.588) on the road this season. Only the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox possess better road records thus far.

Rays get stung for first loss in last six vs. NYY

Despite the absolute beatdown Tampa Bay suffered previous night versus the Yankees, the Rays have won five of their past six against their divisional foe. Tampa Bay’s outscore the Bronx Bombers 23-18 over said six-game stretch. With the defeat Tuesday night, the Rays fall to 51-50 (.505) on the year. Currently, they’re comfortably in third place in the AL East Standings. The Rays are 15 games behind the Boston Red Sox for first-place at this point in the season.

Tampa Bay’s scored a respectable 421 runs this year, but their stingy rotation’s allowed just 404 runs which is fourth-best in the AL. Consequently, their +17 run differential’s seventh-best in the American League. With Wednesday’s early afternoon game on tap, the Rays aim to even the season series with the impressive Yankees squad.

Cessa vs. Eovaldi

Luis Cessa (1-1, 3.00 ERA & 1.27 WHIP) gets the nod for the Yankees in the final game of this three-game set at Tropicana Field. The 26-year-old righty from Cordoba, Mexico has pitched against the Rays numerous times in his brief career. However, Cessa’s only started two games against the Rays. In his two career starts versus Tampa Bay, Cessa’s 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. At Tropicana Field, Cessa’s 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Overall, Cessa’s 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP versus Tampa Bay in his career.

Former Yankee Pitcher Nathan Eovaldi looks to exact revenge upon his former club for his loss against them in June of this year at Yankee Stadium. In the game, Eovaldi allowed five earned runs in 7 1/3 innings. It wasn’t all bad, as Eovaldi struck out five while allowing just one free pass in the losing effort. In ten starts this year, Eovaldi’s 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He’s 2-1 in his last five starts. If you throw out his abysmal performance at Minnesota a week and a half ago, Eovaldi’s been brilliant recently. In four of his last five starts, the right-hander’s posted a 1.08 ERA and 0.76 WHIP.

Where’s the value?

The Yankees are the favorite in this one, with the opening line at -150. With that line, the Bronx Bombers would need to win this matchup 60% of the time to make betting on them profitable. According to our calculations, the Yankees have a 56.7% chance to win this game. So, betting on them runs a negative value of 3.3 in this situation. However, we do see value on the side of the hometown team here. Tampa Bay’s line is +130, which means they’d need to win 43.5% of the time to make wagering on them profitable. Prudent analysis sees them winning this one 51.9% of the time, which means we’ve got a nice 8.4% edge against the number on a home dog. Tampa Bay’s had New York’s number lately, winning five of the past six in the series. Eovaldi’s a better arm than Cessa, and Tampa Bay’s got some serious mojo at the Trop this year. After a meticulous analysis of all the statistics, heeding all the signs and trusting our instincts, we advocate a bet for the Rays on the money line in this American League East showdown.
Get the best line on the this dog play at Bovada who is offering +137 on the Rays.