New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick 7/25/19

by | Jul 25, 2019 | mlb

New York Yankees (66-35) vs. Boston Red Sox (56-47), 7/25/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET Thursday, July 25
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Listed Pitchers: Masahiro Tanaka (7-5, 4.00 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) vs. Rick Porcello (8-7, 5.61, 1.46)

Moneyline: Yankees -115/Red Sox +105 (BetNow)
Over/Under: 11

The Yankees own the Red Sox so far this season, winning six of seven meetings, heading into the opener of this four-game AL East rivalry series at Fenway Park Thursday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Tanaka at around -130 over Boston and Porcello, with an over/under of 11 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line down to about -115.

Yanks vs. Sox Set-Up

New York just took two of three games in Minnesota earlier this week, winning Wednesday’s series rubber match 10-7. Just before that, the Yankees took two of three games from Colorado, and just before that they took three of four games from Tampa Bay. Going back a bit further New York is 4-0 over its last four series and 7-2 over its last nine games.

Boston, meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Rays, missing out on the sweep by losing Wednesday’s series finale 3-2. Just prior to that the Red Sox lost two of three to Baltimore, while just before that they took three of four games from Toronto. So Boston is 2-1 over its last three series and 5-3 over its last eight games.

At 66-35 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by ten games over Tampa Bay and by 11 games over the 56-47 Red Sox. New York also leads Houston by a game and a half in the battle for the best record in the American League.

Boston, meanwhile, also trails Oakland by just two games in the battle for the second AL wild-card spot.

The Yanks lead the season series with the Sox six games to one.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on June 29, a 17-13 Yanks victory in London.

Porcello, by our strict standards, is just 6/20 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last five. Last Saturday he gave up six runs and 11 hits, including two home runs, through five innings against the Orioles, although the Red Sox won that game anyway 17-6. And over his last five starts, he’s been tagged for 27 runs and 41 hits through 23 innings.

Boston is 12-8 with Porcello this season, and 3-0 over his last three starts, although he didn’t have much to do with that.

In two starts this year against New York Porcello allowed 11 runs and 14 hits through just five innings. The Sox lost both those games.

Tanaka is 10/20 on quality starts this year but just one for his last four. Last Saturday he gave up five runs and seven hits through six innings against the Rockies, although the Yankees won that game anyway 11-5. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed 17 runs and 21 hits, including six homers, through 19 innings.

New York is 12-8 with Tanaka this year, 7-0 over his last seven starts, thanks in large part to some good run support.

In his only start of this season against Boston Tanaka got lit up for six runs in less than one inning of work in one of those crazy games played in that bandbox in London.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .274/.349/.482 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top three in the Majors in this split.

Boston is batting .281/.356/.476 against RH pitching this season, which helps this lineup rank No. 1 in the Majors in this split.

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The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.72 ERA this season and a 1.29 WHIP while allowing a .696 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top five bullpens in Baseball.

The Red Sox pen owns a 4.61 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .758 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 54-43 in Yankees games this season.
  • Overs are 59-41 in Red Sox games this season.
  • Overs are 29-20 in games played at Fenway Park this season.
  • Unders are 4-3 in Yanks-Sox games this season.
  • Overs are a combined 23-16 with Porcello and Tanaka this season.

Free MLB Pick

We give Tanaka the edge in the pitching match-up, and New York owns the better bullpen. Plus, the Yankees lineup is looking like a modern version of a Murderer’s Row as of late. We’ll take New York for our free MLB pick for Thursday.

Take the NY Yankees -115