New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick 9/8/19

New York Yankees (93-50) vs. Boston Red Sox (76-66), 9/8/19
Time: 8:05 pm ET Sunday, Sept. 8
Where: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Listed Pitchers: Masahiro Tanaka (10-8, 4.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs. Rick Porcello (12-11, 5.63, 1.44)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Yankees -115/Red Sox +105 (Bovada)
Over/Under: 11

After splitting the first two games of this series the Yankees and Red Sox meet for game three Sunday evening at Fenway Park. New York continues its cruise toward the playoffs, while Boston’s playoffs hopes are on life support. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Tanaka at around -130 over Boston and Porcello, with an over/under of 11 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about 15 cents, to around -115.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Set-Up

Boston took the opener of this four-game series Friday night 6-1 but New York won Saturday’s contest 5-1. The Red Sox won Friday as +115 home dogs on the MLB betting line, while the Yankees won as -120 chalk Saturday.

With Saturday’s victory New York is 9-3 over its last 12 games. At 93-50 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by 8.5 games over second-place Tampa Bay, but they’re also tied with Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League.

With Saturday’s loss Boston is just 3-4 over its last seven games. At 76-66 overall the Red Sox trail division-leading New York by 16.5 in the AL East, and they’re seven games behind Oakland in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot, with time running out.

The Yankees lead the season series with Boston 12 games to five.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on July 25 also at Fenway, a 19-3 Red Sox victory.

Porcello, by our stringent standards, is just 8/28 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three.
Tuesday he gave up six runs and eight hits, including two home runs, through just four innings of a 6-5 Red Sox loss to Minnesota. And over his last three starts he’s allowed 11 runs and 19 hits through 14 innings.

On the season Boston is 16-12 with Porcello, but only 1-2 over his last three starts.

In three starts against New York this season Porcello allowed 14 runs and 20 hits, including three dingers, through 11 innings. The Red Sox lost two of those three games.

Tanaka is 14/28 on quality starts this year and four for his last five. Monday he held Texas to two runs and seven hits through six innings, although the Yankees eventually lost that game 7-0. And over his last five starts he’s allowed nine runs and 25 hits through 33 1/3 innings.

On the season New York is 17-11 with Tanaka, 5-2 over his last seven outings.

However, in two starts this season against Boston Tanaka got bombed for 18 runs and 16 hits through just four total innings of work. Thanks to one big offensive outburst the Yankees split those two games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .268/.340/.488 against right-handed pitching this season.

Boston is batting .279/.351/.482 against RH pitching this season.

Both these lineups rank among the top three in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 4.08 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP, while allowing a .726 OPS.

The Red Sox pen owns a 4.24 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP while also allowing a .726 OPS.

Totals Report

• Overs are 75-63 in Yankees games this season.
• Overs are 78-60 in Red Sox games this season.
• Overs are 40-33 in games played at Fenway Park this season.
• Overs are 9-8 in Yanks-Sox games this season.
• Overs are 18-10 with Porcello this season.

Free MLB Pick

We don’t know who’s going to win this game. New York is playing the better ball as of late, but Boston is in desperation mode. So we’ll pass on the side. But Porcello and Tanaka have combined to give up 32 runs over just 15 innings of work this season against Sunday’s opponents, and while both are likely to improve upon that ratio here, they’re still going to give up some runs. And these are two of the most potent lineups in the Majors against RH pitching. So we’re banking on the over for our free MLB pick for Sunday.