New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians Preview and Pick

New York Yankees -135, o/u 9 at Cleveland Indians, 5 pm Eastern Friday, TBS
by Zman of Predictem.com

The Cleveland Indians look to go up 2-0 in their best-of-five AL Divisional Series with the New York Yankees when the teams meet Friday afternoon at Jacobs Field.

Cleveland grabbed a 1-0 lead in this series by pounding New York 12-3 Thursday evening.

The Indians went 51-29 at home this year, third-best in the majors, while the Yankees went 42-39 on the road.

New York swept the season series with the Tribe this year six games to none, with the o/u going 4-2. And the Yanks did it convincingly, hitting 14 homers in the six games and outscoring Cleveland 47-17.

Veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (15-9, 4.05) will take the hill Friday for New York against 23-year-old Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06) for the Tribe.

Over his last three starts of the regular season, Pettitte allowed 12 ER and 26 baserunners over 18 2/3 IP. Pettitte made one start this year vs. Cleveland, allowing two ER and nine baserunners in 7 1/3 IP of a 5-3 Yanks win back in August.

New York is 21-13 in Pettitte’s starts this year, the o/u 15-17.

Carmona pitched 21 innings in his last three starts of the regular season, giving up four ER and 19 baserunners. In his two starts this year vs. the Yankees, Carmona allowed six ER and 16 baserunners in 13 IP. But the Indians lost both those games.

Cleveland is 22-10 in Carmona’s starts this season, the o/u a lop-sided 10-21.

New York led the majors in several offensive categories this season, including team OBP - .365 and runs scored, at a healthy 5.9 runs per game.

Cleveland ranked eighth in the league with its .343 team OBP this season and averaged 5.0 RPG.

The New York bullpen ranked just 22nd in the majors this season with its 4.35 ERA and 24th with its 1.45 WHIP. The Cleveland pen ranked seventh in the league with a 3.75 ERA and 10th with a 1.34 WHIP.

The Yanks were listed at around -210 to win this divisional-round series, with the Indians getting +180 despite owning home-field advantage. Also, New York is posted at about +155 to win the AL pennant and +300 to win the World Series, while the Tribe is listed at about +350 to win the pennant and +600 to win the Series.

The o/u is 72-84 in Cleveland games this season, 79-72 in Yankees games. Also, the total played to a 40-40 record at Jacobs Field this year, where games averaged 10.0 RPG, 10th-most among all ML parks.

Zman’s Pick: We like the Indians at +116 to upset the Yankes.