New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 8/25/19

by | Aug 25, 2019 | mlb

New York Yankees (84-47) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (86-45), 8/25/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Sunday, Aug. 25
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Domingo German (16-3, 4.15 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) vs. Clay Kershaw (13-2, 2.71, 1.02)
TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Yankees +155 / Dodgers -175 (Bovada)
Over/Under: 8.5

After splitting the first two games of this potential World Series preview the Yanks and Dodgers play a rubber match Sunday evening at Chavez Ravine. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Los Angeles and Kershaw at around -190 over New York and German, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped the Dodgers to -175 and the total to 8.5.

Yanks vs. Dodgers Set-Up

New York took the opener of this series Friday night 10-2, but Los Angeles took Saturday’s game 2-1. The Yankees won Friday as +130 underdogs on the MLB betting line against Hyun-Jin Ryu while the Dodgers won Saturday as -145 favorites.

New York loaded the bases with one out in the top of the ninth inning Saturday but Los Angeles closer Kenley Jansen, who had blown his previous two save opportunities, struck out the last two guys to preserve the victory.

With Saturday’s win, LA is 4-1 over its last five games. At 86-45 overall the Dodgers lead the NL West by a whopping 21 games over second-place Arizona, and they’re seven games up on Atlanta in the battle for the best record in the National League.

With Saturday’s loss, New York is just 1-5 over its last six games. At 84-47 overall the Yankees lead the AL East by eight games over second-place Tampa Bay, but they’re now tied with Houston in the battle for the best record in the American League.

Bigger-picture, LA is two games ahead of New York in the battle for the best record in the Majors, and home-field advantage in the World Series that comes with it.

This series is the first meeting between these teams since 2016 when the Dodgers took two of three games from the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Kershaw, by our stringent standards, is 15/22 on quality starts this season and seven for his last eight. Tuesday he gave up three runs and six hits, including three solo home runs, through six innings of a 16-3 Los Angeles victory over Toronto. And over his last eight starts, he’s allowed just 11 runs – 10 earned – and 32 hits through 51 innings, with 65 strikeouts.

On the season the Dodgers are 18-4 with Kershaw, 7-0 over his last seven starts.

This start will be Kershaw’s first against the Yankees since 2016, and that’s a long time ago.

German is 9/21 on quality starts this year and only one for his last three. Tuesday he gave up six runs – five earned – and eight hits, including a couple of dingers, through 5 1/3 innings of a 6-2 New York loss to Oakland. And over his last three starts, he’s allowed 12 runs – 10 earned – and 21 hits, including six ding-dongs, through 17 1/3 innings.

On the season the Yankees are 17-4 with German, 8-1 over his last nine starts, although he can’t claim all the credit for that.

This start will be German’s first-ever against the Dodgers, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

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Sunday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .277/.350/.496 against left-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.

Los Angeles is batting .263/.346/.489 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 4.05 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .723 OPS.

The Dodgers pen owns a 4.00 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while allowing a .698 OPS. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top six or seven bullpens in Baseball this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 73-53 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are 64-62 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Unders are 35-29 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.
  • Overs are 14-8 with Kershaw this season.

Free MLB Pick

Kershaw gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and while New York might own a slight edge with the sticks, the Dodgers own the advantage in the bullpen comparison. Also, LA’s just been playing the better ball as of late. We’re playing the Dodgers here with our free MLB pick for Sunday and betting at 5Dimes where we can get the better price with their dimeline betting.

Take the Dodgers -168

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