NY Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Analysis – Pick

The Braves bats are HOT. They’ve scored 7 runs or more in 4 out of their last 5 games (9, 7, 12, 1, 10) and have averaged 9.33 runs per game over their last 3.

The team looks to be gaining momentum as well as they’ve won 3 in a row and sport a stellar 47-18 home record (72.3%).

I don’t expect them to mash Niese, but they should be able to do just enough to score more than the Mets do.

The Mets lost their last game and are 5-5 in their last 10. They’ve scored 3, 5, 1 and 2 in their last four games which averages out to under 3 runs per game. I don’t figure them to turn it around in Atlanta, where the Braves sport that nifty home record as noted above.

One could make the argument than Jonathan Niese has been filthy as of late only allowing 1 earned run in 5 of his last 7 starts, but when you break it down and realize that the bulk of the competition consisted of the Pirates, Astros and Rockies away from Coors, it’s not quite as impressive. Furthermore, he got shelled in his last outing vs. the Marlins where he gave up 7 earned runs in 5.2 innings.

Mets SS Jose Reyes is questionable. Even if he does play, he’s banged up with an oblique injury. When the spark plug to your engine is having issues and can’t run, your engine doesn’t run efficiently.

Angel Pagan would likely lead off if Reyes is unable to play and that’s good news for the Braves as he only gets on base at a 28% clip vs. lefties. Speaking of lefties, Minor is a GOOD ONE. This a guy that you’re going to hear about for many moons to come.

First baseman Ike Davis is a fish out of water on the road hitting only .228 away from home.

I don’t expect 3B David Wright to do much tonight either as he’s in the middle of a 1/15 slide. He’s only hitting .232 in August but in defense of the All-Star corner man, he absolutely smokes LHP to the tune of a .364 batting average. No forecasting of games ever runs perfect though and shutouts are rare, so hopefully he’s the only one that hurts us lol.

Carlos Beltran has been absolutely worthless this year and should give back his 19 million dollar salary. But we’ll save that for another conversation.

The guy that really concerns me is OF Jeff Francoeur. He’s had 3 multi-hit games in his last 8, has big power and would love nothing more than to take a dump on the Braves as they had somewhat of an ugly break-up. (He used to play for ATL). As noted above, nothing is perfect though and I’d be surprised if the NYM got shut out here.

In case you’re wondering, Jason Bay won’t be playing tonight as he’s on the DL.

Motivation is surely on the side of Atlanta as they’re holding onto a 3 game lead over the Phillies in a tight battle in the NL East. The Mets are 11 games back of Atlanta and have to be losing hope as their playoff chances seem to be diminishing.

I like the Braves at -155. I liked the under 8 as well, but it’s lost value since it dropped down to 7.5.