Padres vs. DBacks Moneyline Pick 9/17/22

by | Sep 17, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Date: Saturday September 17th, 08:10 ET
Location: Chase Field
TV: Bally Sports San Diego
Money Line: Padres -105 / Diamondbacks -115
Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

San Diego: Joe Musgrove (9-7, 3.28) Arizona: Zac Gallen (12-2, 2.55)

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS Trent Grisham CF Jake Cronenworth 2B Juan Soto RF Brandon Drury 3B Manny Machado 3B Austin Nola C Josh Bell 1B Jurickson Profar LF Joe Musgrove P

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Carson Kelly C Alek Thomas CF Daulton Varsho CF Corbin Carroll LF Josh Rojas 2B Geraldo Perdomo SS Ketel Marte 2B Christian Walker 1B Jake McCarthy RF Zac Gallen P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Diego Padres: 79-66-0 SU / OU 68-72-5 / Run Line W/L 63-82-0 Arizona Diamondbacks: 68-76-0 SU / OU 67-73-4 / Run Line W/L 83-61-0

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on Saturday September 17th at Chase Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Arizona as the favorite (-115), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In San Diego’s last game vs Arizona, the Padres came away with a 12-3 win. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited Arizona to 3 runs on 7 hits. The Padres benefited from an offense that generated 12 runs on 17 hits. Heading into their last game, San Diego was the betting favorite at -190.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 105 of their games, winning at a rate of 56.9%. Together, the Padres and Arizona combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 8.0 runs. Games involving the Padres have stayed below the over-under line more than half of the time, at 68-72-5.

After their 5 most recent games, the Padres have gone just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -7. San Diego’s offense is in the middle of a cold streak, as their offensive production has dipped to just 3.4 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 46 series played, going 22-16-8.

Arizona will look to move on from a 9 run loss to the Padres, falling by the score of 12-3. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 17 hits, leading to 12 runs. At the plate, the Diamondbacks only came through for 3 runs on 7 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Arizona came into the game as the underdog, getting 156.0. So far, the team has gone into 99 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 42.0%. The Diamondbacks and Padres went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. Against the run total, Arizona is just 67-73-4.

The Diamondbacks come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -13. If Arizona is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.4 runs per game, compared to a season average of 4.43. Arizona has a below .500 series record of just 17-21-8.

Pitching Matchup

San Diego will roll with Joe Musgrove (9-7) as their starter. In his previous outings, Musgrove has lasted an average of 6.12 innings, putting together an ERA of just 3.28. In his previous outings, right-hander opponents are hitting 0.232 off the right-hander. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Musgrove, averaging 1.19 homers per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Joe Musgrove has a strong strikeout percentage of 24.0%, including a per-game average of 6.04. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.92 walks per outing.

Zac Gallen gets the start for the Diamondbacks, with an overall record of 12-2. Heading into the game, Gallen has appeared in 27 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.55. On average, he pitches 5.86 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.187. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.63 home runs allowed per 9 innings. On the season, Zac Gallen has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 26.0%. This has led to an average of 6.04 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Gallen, as he is giving up 2.27 walks per outing.

San Diego vs Arizona History

Today’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks will be their 18th meeting of the season. So far, San Diego is leading the season series, 12-5. Through 17 games, the series over-under record is 7-10, with the average run total sitting at 9.21 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.24 runs. Last season, San Diego picked up the series win, 11 games to 8. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 9.21 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.37 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • San Diego is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Arizona
  • San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona’s last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s NL West showdown between San Diego and Arizona, the Diamondbacks have a slight edge on the moneyline due to Zac Gallen being on the mound. Aside from his last outing where he gave up 3 runs in Colorado, the right-hander has been excellent. Look for him to continue his excellent season against a Padres lineup that is prone to inconsistency. I like the Diamondbacks on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Arizona Moneyline