Padres vs. Dodgers Betting Analysis & Predictions

by | Jun 30, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Thursday, June 30th, 10:10 ET
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: Bally Sports San Diego
Money Line: Padres +100 / Dodgers -120 (Get the best lines >>>)
Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

San Diego: Joe Musgrove (8-1, 2.12)
Los Angeles: Mitch White (1-1, 4.25)

Padres Projected Lineup

Nomar Mazara RF
Ha-seong Kim 3B
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jorge Alfaro C
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Joe Musgrove P

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Cody Bellinger CF
Trayce Thompson RF
Chris Taylor CF
Justin Turner 3B
Max Muncy 3B
Gavin Lux 2B
Will Smith C
Trea Turner SS
Freddie Freeman 1B
Mitch White P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Diego Padres: 45-31-0 SU / OU 34-41-2 / Run Line W/L 41-36-0
Los Angeles Dodgers: 45-28-0 SU / OU 30-38-6 / Run Line W/L 42-32-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on Thursday, June 30th at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

In San Diego’s last game vs the Diamondbacks, the Padres came away with a 4-0 win. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 0 runs on 3 hits. The Padres lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 4 runs. In the matchup, San Diego was favored at -135.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 55 of their games, winning at a rate of 60.0%. Combined, the Padres and Diamondbacks fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.5 runs. This outcome pushed San Diego’s over-under record further below .500 at 34-41-2.

Over the Padres’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -1. On offense, San Diego’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 3.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 24 series played, going 13-7-4.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a big win over the Rockies by a score of 8-4. For the game, the pitching staff held the Rockies to 4 runs on 10 hits. Offensively, they finished with 8 runs on 11 hits. Heading into action, Los Angeles was the favorite at -220.0. So far, the team has won 62.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Dodgers and Rockies went over the run total line set at 11.5 runs. Against the run total, Los Angeles is just 30-38-6.

The Dodgers come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -3. If Los Angeles is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to a season average of 5.08. On the season, Los Angeles has won more than half of their series, going 15-8-1.

Pitching Matchup

San Diego will roll with Joe Musgrove (8-1) as their starter. Currently, Musgrove has an ERA of just 2.12 while pitching an average of 6.54 innings per outing. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.203. Not only does Musgrove have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.74 HR/9 On the season, Joe Musgrove has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 25.0%. This includes a per game average of 6.31 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.91 walks per contest.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will send Mitch White to the mound with an overall record of 1-1. So far, White has put together an ERA of 4.25. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 2.92 innings. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.214 against White. Home runs have been a concern for White as he is allowing 1.23 per 9 innings. Up to this point, White has a strikeout percentage of just 24.0% and a per game average of 3.0. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.03 walks per contest.

San Diego vs Los Angeles History

For the season, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will be playing their 4th game of the season. Los Angeles holds the edge in the series at 2-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-2. The average run total in these games is 8.21 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.67 runs. Los Angeles won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 12 wins to 7. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 10-8, with the average run total being 8.21 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.84 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
  • San Diego is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
  • LA Dodgers is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing San Diego

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s NL West showdown between San Diego and Los Angeles, the Dodgers are the slight favorite on the moneyline. However, I recommend taking the Padres to pick up the win. Even though Joe Musgrove was roughed up in Philadelphia, I expect him to return to form with a good outing vs Los Angeles. On the season, Musgrove has a WHIP of just 0.95.

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