Padres vs. Marlins Total Play 8/16/22

by | Last updated Aug 26, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins

Date: Tuesday August 16th, 06:40 ET

Location: LoanDepot Park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Padres -160 / Marlins +134 (Everygame – NEW! We can now get our readers a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you go to their special offers page and type in bonus code PREDICTEM directly after making your first deposit!)

Total Line: 7.5


San Diego: Sean Manaea (6-6, 4.76)
Miami: Edward Cabrera (3-1, 2.05)

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Trent Grisham CF
Brandon Drury 2B
Juan Soto RF
Jake Cronenworth SS
Manny Machado 3B
Jorge Alfaro C
Josh Bell 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Sean Manaea P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Nick Fortes C
J.J. Bleday CF
Garrett Cooper 1B
Brian Anderson RF
Joey Wendle 3B
Peyton Burdick LF
Jesús Aguilar 1B
Miguel Rojas SS
Jon Berti 2B
Edward Cabrera P


San Diego Padres: 65-53-0 SU / OU 54-60-4 / Run Line W/L 55-63-0
Miami Marlins: 51-65-0 SU / OU 49-60-7 / Run Line W/L 53-63-0

The Miami Marlins host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday, August 16th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-160), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Padres will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Marlins by the score of 3-0. Even in the loss, the pitching staff gave up just 3 runs while allowing 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with 0 runs on 5 hits. Padres suffered the loss, despite being favored at -145.0. Through 85 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 56%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 6.5 runs. So far, San Diego has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 54-60-4.

The Padres are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +13. Offensively, the team has put up 32 runs in their last 5 games. San Diego’s season average comes in at 4.44 (15th. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 37 series played, going 19-13-5.

Miami is coming off a 3 run win over the Padres (3-0). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Padres to 0 runs and 5 hits. With their 9 hits, the Marlins could only muster 3 runs. This was a good win for the Marlins, as they were underdogs at 125.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 59 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 31.0%. Combined, the Marlins and Padres’ run total fell below the over-under line of 6.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 49-60-7.

The Marlins come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -7 over their last 5 games. If Miami is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.2 runs per game, compared to a season average of 3.73. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 11-22-5.

Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send Sean Manaea to the mound with an overall record of 6-6. So far, Manaea has put together an ERA of 4.76. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.67 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.249. Opponents are hitting for power against Manaea, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.44. In terms of strikeouts, Sean Manaea has a strong strikeout percentage of 24.0%, including a per game average of 5.81. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Manaea is averaging 3.33 free passes per outing.

Edward Cabrera gets the start for the Marlins, with an overall record of 3-1. In his previous outings, Cabrera has lasted an average of 5.22 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.05. So far, batters are hitting just 0.144 against him. Home runs have not been an issue for Cabrera, as he is giving up just 0.69 per 9. Cabrera is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 5.8 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 27.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 4.78 walks per contest.

San Diego vs Miami History

Today’s matchup between the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins will be their 6th meeting of the season. So far, San Diego is leading the season series, 3-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-4. The average run total in these games is 8.29 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.8 runs. Last season, San Diego picked up the series win, 4 games to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Padres and Marlins averaged 8.29 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.43 runs per contest.

More Picks: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees Best Bet for 8/16/22

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Diego’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego’s last 6 games when playing Miami
  • Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
  • Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Diego

San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s National League matchup between San Diego and Miami, the Padres are the favorite on the moneyline with an over-under line of 7.5 runs. Look for this to be yet another low-scoring game between the teams. Both Sean Manaea and Edward Cabrera could end up pitching deep into the game. I recommend taking the under.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs.

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