Padres vs. Mets Betting Odds & Predictions 7/22/22

by | Jul 22, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets
Date: Friday, July 22nd, 07:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: Bally Sports San Diego
Money Line: Padres +145 / Mets -175
Total Line: 6.5
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STARTING PITCHING

San Diego: Yu Darvish (8-4, 3.41)
New York: Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.22)

Padres Projected Lineup

Ha-seong Kim SS
Nomar Mazara RF
Jorge Alfaro C
Eric Hosmer 1B
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Yu Darvish P

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Dominic Smith 1B
Jeff McNeil 2B
Eduardo Escobar 3B
Starling Marte RF
Tomás Nido C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Max Scherzer P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

San Diego Padres: 52-42-0 SU / OU 42-50-2 / Run Line W/L 44-50-0
New York Mets: 58-35-0 SU / OU 46-39-8 / Run Line W/L 49-44-0

The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres on Friday, July 22nd at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (OFF), with an OU line set at OFF.

Recent Form

The Padres come into this game having suffered a 3-1 loss to the Diamondbacks. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Diamondbacks to just 3 runs on 6 hits. The Padres ended the game with just 1 run on 6 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -155.0. Through 67 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 55%. Together, the Padres and Diamondbacks stayed below the over-under line set at 7.5 runs. With this result, San Diego’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 42-50-2.

In their last 5 games, the Padres are below .500, at 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -6. In their last 5 contests, San Diego is averaging 4.2 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 4.34. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 29 series played, going 14-10-5.

In their last game, the Mets suffered a 1 run loss to the Cubs by a score of 3-2. Despite the losing effort, the team’s pitchers held the Cubs to 3 runs and 7 hits. The Mets offense ended the game with just 2 runs on 9 hits. New York dropped the game despite being favored at -140.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 69 games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. With this result, the Mets and Cubs combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. New York still has an above .500 over-under record at (46-39-8).

In their last 5 games, the Mets have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +13. New York is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.6 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.70. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 21-5-3.

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Pitching Matchup

San Diego will roll with Yu Darvish (8-4) as their starter. To date, Darvish has an ERA of 3.41 while lasting an average of 6.36 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.214 against Darvish. Per 9 innings pitched, Darvish is averaging 0.92 home runs allowed. In terms of strikeouts, Yu Darvish has a strong strikeout percentage of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 5.88. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 1.83 walks per outing.

The New York Mets will send Max Scherzer to the mound with an overall record of 6-1. In his previous outings, Scherzer has lasted an average of 6.27 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.22. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.198. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.78 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Max Scherzer has a strong K% of 34.0%, including a per game average of 8.18. Throughout the season, Scherzer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.57 per contest.

San Diego vs New York History

For the season, the San Diego Padres and New York Mets will be playing their 4th game of the season. So far, San Diego is leading the season series, 2-1. Through 3 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-1, with the average run total sitting at 5.86 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 8.0 runs. Dating back to last season, New York picked up 4 wins compared to 3, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Padres and Mets averaged 5.86 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 2.71 runs per game.

More Picks: Get our Texas at Oakland odds, trends, free Moneyline pick for 7/22/22 >>>

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
  • San Diego is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
  • NY Mets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • NY Mets is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against San Diego

San Diego Padres at New York Mets Prediction

Heading into Friday’s National League matchup between San Diego and New York, the New York Mets are the favorite to pick up the win. After his return from injury, Max Scherzer has been excellent on the mound, giving up just 3 runs in just under 20 innings pitched. Even though Yu Darvish also has a strong season resume, I see the Padres having a tough time giving Darvish enough run support to come away with the victory. I like the Mets on the moneyline.

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