MLB Baseball Picks

Kremer’s sinker — sitting 92.0 mph with a .468 xwOBA-against — is the kind of liability that a power lineup like New York’s can exploit in a hurry, and Judge owns 4 career home runs in just 21 career plate appearances against him. The total is posted at 8.5 with projections sitting nearly a full run higher, and the over is available at -105 on a neutral Target Field surface. The breakdown is inside.

Wrigley Field’s 1.02 park factor barely moves the needle on its own — but stack it against Peterson’s 1.58 WHIP and Lopez’s 32 walks in 76.1 innings and the run environment shifts. The total is set at 9.5 with the over priced at -105, near even money against a backdrop of two leaky starters and depleted bullpens on both sides. See how this one plays out.

Baltimore’s .709 OPS — already below average — is now running on a patchwork lineup stripped of O’Neill, Robert Jr., Mountcastle, and Franklin. The total is posted at 8.0 with the under priced at -114, signaling the market already leans toward offense despite Citi Field’s suppressive 0.97 park factor and two offenses sitting near the bottom of the league in batting average. Find out which way this one goes.

The bullpen gap between these two teams compounds a starter disparity that the price is not accounting for — Soriano has issued 71 free passes in 163 innings while Melton holds a 1.05 WHIP. Toronto is listed at -138 despite run projections that have this game within a tenth of a run. The edge is explained inside.

Skubal vs. Lodolo is a clearer mismatch than the total of 8.0 implies. Lodolo’s sinker posts a .482 xwOBA against while Skubal holds a 0.97 WHIP — the Under at -110 is treating both arms as far closer than the numbers support. The analysis is inside.

Newcomb’s 2 home runs allowed across 84.1 innings meets a Guardians lineup that leans on contact and speed rather than power. The total is set at 7.0 with the under priced at -118 — a modest tax for a pitcher-controlled environment with two legitimate run-suppressors on the mound. The pick is inside.

The bullpen gap between these two teams is real — but the bigger asymmetry is at the top of the rotation, where a 2.73 ERA ace meets a 4.43 ERA back-end starter carrying a leaky sinker and cutter. The total is sitting at 8.0, still inflated by a 42-run weekend that has nothing to do with who’s pitching today. The side is inside.

Sheehan vs. Perez is a clearer mismatch than the posted total of 8.5 implies. The under is priced at -117 while the over sits at -103 — nearly a coin flip — yet the dome, a depleted Dodgers lineup, and Perez’s 44.1% changeup whiff rate all lean suppressive. The full read is inside.

Atlanta’s projected order today is missing Olson, Acuña, and Harris entirely — the patchwork lineup is a real constraint on the Braves’ scoring ceiling. The total is posted at 9.0, with the under juiced to -114, as the books lean on Painter’s volatile track record to prop up the over side. Find out which way this one goes.

The bullpen gap between these two clubs is secondary to the real story on the mound — Schlittler’s 2.01 ERA, 11.08 K/9, and 0.92 WHIP face a Mets lineup with a .706 team OPS and 1,248 strikeouts on the year. The total sits at 7.5 with the Over juiced to -115, pricing in a run environment yesterday’s starter created, not today’s. The edge is explained inside.