Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets ML Pick

by | Last updated Aug 12, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
Date: Friday August 12th, 07:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
TV: Apple TV+
Money Line: Phillies +126 / Mets -150 (Bovada – A MUST HAVE for football betting this season!)
Total Line: 7.0


Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.68)
New York: Max Scherzer (8-2, 1.98)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Bryson Stott SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Darick Hall 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Brandon Marsh CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Ranger Suarez P

Mets Projected Lineup

Eduardo Escobar 3B
Jeff McNeil 2B
Darin Ruf 1B
Mark Canha LF
Starling Marte RF
Tomás Nido C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Max Scherzer P


Philadelphia Phillies: 62-49-0 SU / OU 56-50-5 / Run Line W/L 58-53-0
New York Mets: 73-39-0 SU / OU 57-46-9 / Run Line W/L 63-49-0

The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday August 12th at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

The Phillies will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Marlins by the score of 3-0. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Marlins to just 3 runs on 7 hits. The Phillies ended the game with 0 runs on 7 hits. This defeat came despite being favored at -155.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 74 of their games, winning at a rate of 59.0%. Together, the Phillies and Marlins stayed below the over-under line set at 8.0 runs. However, for the season, Philadelphia still has an overall over-under record of 56-50-5.

In the Phillies’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +19. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.72 runs per game. But over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 6.4. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 35 series played, going 17-15-3.

The New York Mets will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Reds by 8 runs (10-2). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Reds to 2 runs and 6 hits. Offensively, they finished with 10 runs on 13 hits. New York picked up the win while being favored at -320.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 88 games, winning at a rate of 70.0%. The Mets and Reds went over the run total line set at 9.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 57-46-9.

Over their last 5 games, the Mets have not lost a game, going 5-0. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +23. Compared to their season average, the Mets come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 6.4 runs per game. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 26-6-3.


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Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Ranger Suarez to the mound with an overall record of 8-5. So far, Suarez has put together an ERA of 3.68. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.27 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.258. This season, Suarez has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.9 per 9 innings. Per game, Ranger Suarez is averaging 4.47, on a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.32 walks per outing.

Max Scherzer gets the start for the Mets, with an overall record of 8-2. Through 15 appearances, Scherzer has an ERA of just 1.98 while averaging 6.35 innings per appearance. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.2 against the right-hander. In addition, to his strong BA allowed, he has been able to limit power, allowing just 0.76 home runs allowed per 9 innings. Per game, Max Scherzer is averaging 8.0, on a strikeout percentage of 32.0%. Throughout the season, Scherzer has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.6 per contest.

Philadelphia vs New York History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will be playing their 13th game of the season. Currently, New York is winning the season series 9-3. Through 12 games, the series over-under record is 6-5, with the average run total sitting at 6.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.67 runs. Going back to last year, Philadelphia won the season series, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 8-11, with the average run total being 6.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.11 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
  • Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • NY Mets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • NY Mets is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Prediction

Going into Friday’s National League matchup between Philadelphia and New York, the Mets have the edge on the moneyline. Even though Ranger Suarez has been solid for the Phillies, I give the edge to Max Scherzer. New York has rattled off 3 straight wins with Scherzer on the mound. I like the Mets on the moneyline.

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