Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction 9/4/20

by | Sep 4, 2020 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (18-15) vs. New York Mets (17-21), 9/4/20
Time: 7:10 pm ET Friday, Sept. 4
Where: Citi Field, New York, NY
Listed Pitchers: Jake Arrieta (2-4, 6.49) vs. Rick Porcello (1-4, 6.00)

Moneyline: Phillies +115/Mets -125
Over/Under: 9.5

A pair of struggling former Cy Young Award winners face off when Phillies and Mets begin a four-game NL East series Friday night in Queens. Philly comes in hot, playing itself into the National League playoff picture with a recent 9-1 run, while New York is struggling to stay afloat. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds at Mybookie opened New York and Porcello at around -120 over Philly and Arrieta, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Mets to -125.

New York could also be found getting upwards of +150, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Phillies vs. Mets Set-Up

Philadelphia just swept four games at home from Washington this week, completing the sweep with a 6-5 extra-inning win Thursday. Just before that, the Phillies took two of three games from Atlanta, and just before that, they swept two games from the Nationals.

So Philadelphia is 9-1 over its last ten games.

New York, meanwhile, just won a makeup game with the Yankees Thursday 9-7 in extra innings. Just before that, the Mets split two games in Baltimore; just before that, they lost a makeup game to Miami, and just before that, they lost the last three games of a series with the Yankees. So New York is 2-5 over its last seven games.

At 18-15 overall, Philly trails the first-place Braves by just 2.5 games in the NL East, and owns the No. 5 spot in the National League standings, which this season is good for a playoff spot.

At 17-21, overall, the Mets are six games back of Atlanta in the NL East but only a game and a half behind Colorado in the battle for the eighth and final National League playoff spot.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season; three weeks ago, the Phillies swept three games from the Mets in Philly.

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Friday’s Starting Arms

2015 National League Cy Young Award winner Arrieta is just 1/6 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last four. Last Sunday, he got bombed by Atlanta for seven runs in less than two innings in a 12-10 Philly loss. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed 16 runs on 21 hits and nine walks through 15 1/3 innings.

On the season, the Phillies are just 2-4 with Arrieta, with the totals splitting 2-2-2.

Over four starts against the Mets last year, Arrieta allowed 17 runs – 15 earned – and 33 hits through 24 1/3 innings. Philadelphia managed to split those four games.

2016 American League Cy Young Award winner Porcello is 2/7 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last three. Last Sunday, he limited the Yankees to two runs and four hits through five innings, although the Mets lost that game 8-7. But over his two starts previous to that, he gave up eight runs and 15 hits through nine innings.

For the season, New York is just 1-6 with Porcello, with the unders going 4-3.

Over his last three starts against the Phillies, two previous while still with Boston and one a couple of weeks ago, Porcello allowed nine runs and 18 hits through 16 innings. His teams lost two of those three games.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Philadelphia is batting .264 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .342 team OBP and a .443 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top half-dozen in Baseball in this split.

New York is batting .280/.354/.456 vs. RH pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top two or three in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns an ML-worst 6.69 ERA this season and an ML-worst 1.84 WHIP.

The Mets pen owns a 4.22 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 5-6 on the road this season.
  • New York is 8-10 at home this season.
  • Philadelphia is 10-9 against right-handed starters this season.
  • New York is 11-11 vs. RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Totals are split 15-15 in Phillies games this season.
  • Overs are 19-18 in Mets games this season.
  • Overs are 9-8 in games played at Citi Field this season.

Free MLB Pick

We don’t know who’s going to win this game, but we don’t care. Combining two shaky starting pitchers with a terrible Philadelphia bullpen and two of the best lineups against RH pitching, we see runs by the bunches in the making. So we’re taking the over 9.5 runs here for our free MLB pick for Friday. Note: Don’t forget that we also offer free NCAA football picks each week of the season!

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