Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Odds & Predictions 8/20/21
When: 10:10 p.m., Friday, August 20
Where: Petco Park, San Diego
Moneyline: PHI +190/SD -210 (BetAnySports - Betting odds cost less there! Why overpay?)
Runline: Phillies +1.5/Padres -1.5
Starting Pitchers: Matt Moore (2-3, 6.07 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) vs. Blake Snell (6-4, 4.80 ERA, 1.56 WHIP)
Do the Collapse
There’s nothing wrong with losing to the Rockies in Coors Field. It’s not ideal to do it, of course, but Colorado is so good at home that it’s going to happen to a lot of teams. On the other hand, Losing at Arizona is inexcusable for a team that fancies itself as being in the playoff race. But that’s what the Padres have done, and they now find themselves having lost six of their past seven contests and given away most of their wild card lead.
All year long, it had been so easy for the Padres, who hadn’t really had any pressure on them because it was just assumed that they’d either dethrone the Dodgers or host the wild card game. But then San Francisco came out of nowhere and relegated the Padres to wild-card status, and now the Padres might not even get that. San Diego’s lead for the second wild card has fallen to one game only because the Reds haven’t taken advantage of their chances. The bottom line, this is a young team that seems to be succumbing to the pressure of their first real playoff race, as nobody challenged them at all a season ago.
Running Out of Gas
The Phillies have their own concerns at the time being, having just gone to Arizona and taken three losses of their own. The Phillies looked like they had been playing better away from Citizens Bank Park, but with the Phils going 0-3 in Phoenix, it seems like this team has hit a wall.
Philadelphia was only in the playoff race because the NL East had several mediocre teams but no great ones, but recently, Atlanta has discovered that it was once a pretty good baseball team and can be good again. The Phils are still in the race because Atlanta dug its hole so deep that the Braves’ recent stretch has only been good enough to move them to a few games ahead on Philadelphia and the Mets, but the Phillies have to reverse that momentum if they’re going to get back in this race. At 25-35 away from home, though, this situation isn’t looking good.
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However, the Phillies have got the right guy on the mound to stop the bleeding in a road game, as Matt Moore actually pitches pretty well away from home compared to the rest of the Phillies. Over his past four road starts, the Phillies have won them all, and only one was even a save situation, as the past three have ended up seeing Philadelphia outscore its foes 33-10.
Obviously, that’s not something you can count on against Blake Snell, who has struggled at times but has come on strong in recent games, pitching the Padres to wins in seven of his past nine starts. San Diego did just lose his most recent start against Arizona, in part because the Padres’ offense never got going in that game, scoring just two runs against the Diamondbacks. With both pitchers doing pretty well over their past few starts, a total of 9.5 might be a little high.
- The Phillies are 5-1 in their past six as a road underdog.
- The Phillies are 5-3 in their past eight road games.
- The Padres are 11-2 in their past 13 games above .500.
- The Padres are 8-3 in their past 11 games after an off day.
- The under is 4-0 in the Phillies’ past four Friday games.
- The under is 4-0-3 in the Phillies’ past seven against the NL West.
- The under is 5-1 in the Padres’ past six contests.
- The over is 20-8 in the Padres’ past 28 games as a home favorite.
- The Phillies are 37-17 in their past 54 trips to San Diego.
The Phillies will again enjoy lovely weather, as it’s expected to be 70 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing at six miles per hour toward first base.
With the Phillies having some solid history against the Padres and San Diego really showing signs of feeling the pressure, I think the Phillies can break out of their slump here and get a result. I know that makes little sense after they went 0-3 against Arizona, but I think there’s enough talent and value here to make this one a solid play.
I’ll take the Phils here.
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