Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants Pick 8/11/19

by | Aug 11, 2019 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (60-57) vs. San Francisco Giants (58-60), 8/11/19 Time: 7:05 pm ET Sunday, Aug. 11 Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA Listed Pitchers: Jake Arrieta (8-8, 4.41 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) vs. Conner Menez (0-1, 5.73, 1.27) TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Giants -108 / Phillies -102 (BetOnline) Over/Under: 9un -115

The Giants shoot for the series victory while the Nationals hope for a sweep when the teams meet Sunday night out by McCovey Cove. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened this game at right around a pick ’em, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then edged the Giants into -110 favorites.

Speaking of odds, if you aren’t betting with MLB dimelines or reduced juice then you’re potentially leaving mnoey on the table with every bet!

Phillies vs. Giants Set-Up

San Francisco took the opener of this series Thursday night 5-0 with Madison Bumgarner. Philadelphia then won Friday’s game 9-6, thanks to a four-run seventh inning. But the Giants bounced back to win Saturday’s game 3-1 to take a 2-1 lead in this series.

These teams have now split six meetings this season.

Even with Saturday’s victory, the Giants are only 3-7 over their last ten games. At 58-60 overall San Francisco trails the division-leading Dodgers by 19.5 games in the NL West but it’s only four games behind Washington and Milwaukee, who are tied for the lead in the National League wild-card race.

With Saturday’s loss, the Phillies are 1-4 over their last five games. At 60-57 overall Philadelphia trails first-place Atlanta by eight games in the NL East but it’s also only a game and a half out in that NL wild-card race.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Rookie lefty Menez is 0/2 on quality starts in his short ML career so far. Tuesday he gave up five runs and six hits, including a couple of homers, through six innings of a 5-3 Giants loss to Washington. But in his ML debut two weeks earlier he held the Mets to two runs and three hits, although two of those also left the yard, through five frames of a 3-2 San Francisco win.

So the Giants are 1-1 with Menez so far.

Menez earned his call to the Bigs by going 2-0 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP over 44 1/3 innings down at Triple-A Sacramento this summer.

Arrieta, by our stringent standards, is 8/23 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last eight. However, some of that is due to a short leash, as he pitches through bone spurs on his elbow. Tuesday he held Arizona to two runs and five hits through five innings of an 8-4 Phillies loss. And over his last five starts, he’s allowed 11 runs – nine earned – and 24 hits through 24 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia is 13-10 with Arrieta this season, 3-2 over his last five starts.

Over his last two starts against San Francisco, one last year and one ten days ago, Arrieta allowed six ER and 12 hits through 10 innings. The Phillies split those two games.

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Sunday’s Batting Splits

Philadelphia is batting .250/.321/.434 against left-handed pitching this season. The Phillies have also been held to one run or less three times in their last four games.

San Francisco is batting .239/.304/.404 against right-handed pitching this season. The Giants have also been held to three runs or less five times in their last seven games.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.73 ERA this season and a 1.46 WHIP while allowing an .807 OPS.

The Giants pen owns a 3.70 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while allowing a .682 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 60-54 in Phillies games this season.
  • Overs are 56-55 in Giants games this season.
  • Unders are 28-26 in games played at Oracle Park this season.

Free MLB Pick

Philadelphia holds short edges in the pitching match-up and with the sticks, but San Francisco owns a significant advantage in the bullpen comparison. And this game could very well come down to the bullpens. That’s why we like the Giants for our free MLB pick in this spot.

Take the Giants -108