Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Pick 9/23/19

by | Sep 23, 2019 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (79-75) vs. Washington Nationals (85-69), 9/23/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Monday, Sept. 23
Where: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
Listed Pitchers: Zach Eflin (9-12, 4.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Patrick Corbin (13-7, 3.10, 1.16)
TV: NBCS Philadelphia, MASN

Moneyline: Nationals -190/Phillies +170 (YowWager)
Over/Under: 9

The Nationals are trying to secure home-field advantage for next week’s National League wild-card game while the Phillies are just trying to stay alive in the NL playoff race, heading into the opener of a five-game series Monday night in DC. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Washington and Corbin at around -175 over Philly and Eflin, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped the Nats 15 cents, to around -190.

Phillies vs. Nationals Set-Up

Philadelphia just dropped two of three games in Cleveland over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series rubber match 10-1. Just before that, the Phillies took two of three from NL East champion Atlanta, but just before that they got swept two games by Boston. Going back a bit further Philadelphia is only 5-7 over its last 12 games.
Washington, meanwhile, just took two of three games in Miami over the weekend, losing Sunday 5-3. The Nationals actually led Sunday’s game 3-1 into the bottom of the seventh inning, but the bullpen coughed up four runs, spoiling the sweep.
Just before that Washington lost two of three in St. Louis, and just before that it dropped two of three to the Braves. So the Nats are only 4-5 over their last nine games.
At 85-69 overall Washington is tied with Milwaukee for the top spot in the NL wild-card standings, four games clear of the third-place Cubs. So the Nationals are probably going to make the playoffs, they’re just not sure yet where they’ll play that NL wild-card game.
Meanwhile, at 79-75 Philadelphia trails Washington and the Brewers by six games. Yes, the Phillies are on life-support, but they’re not dead yet.
The Nationals lead the season series with Philly nine games to five.

Monday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on June 19 in Washington, a 6-2 Nats victory.
Lefty Corbin, by our stringent standards, is 19/31 on quality starts this season and six for his last eight. Last Tuesday he held St. Louis to two runs – none earned – and five hits, with 11 strikeouts, through six innings of a 6-2 Washington win. And over his last eight starts, he’s limited opponents to just 12 ER and 37 hits through 50 innings.
On the season the Nationals are 19-12 with Corbin, 3-1 over his last four starts.
Over three starts this season against Philadelphia Corbin allowed seven runs and 16 hits through 19 innings, with 24 whiffs. Washington won all three of those games.
Eflin is 12/28 on quality starts this year and three for his last five. Last Wednesday he held Atlanta to one run – none earned – and five hits through seven innings of a 4-1 Phillies win. And over his last five starts, he’s allowed just five ER and 23 hits through 28 2/3 innings.
Philadelphia is only 10-16 with Eflin this year but 3-2 over his last five outings.
Over three starts this season against the Nationals Eflin gave up just three ER and 12 hits through 18 innings. The Phillies won two of those three games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

Philadelphia is batting .257/.330/.448 against left-handed pitching this season.
Washington is batting .256/.334/.444 against right-handed pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Philadelphia bullpen owns a 4.48 ERA this season and a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a .781 OPS.
The Washington pen owns an ML-worst 5.87 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP while allowing an .815 OPS. Numbers like those are why we rank this unit among the worst two or three bullpens in Baseball.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 79-71 in Phillies games this season.
  • Unders are 74-71 in Nationals games this season.
  • Overs are 37-33 in games played at Nationals Park this season.
  • Totals are split 7-7 in Phillies-Nats games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 31-24 with Corbin and Eflin this season.

Free MLB Pick

We give Corbin the edge in the pitching match-up but that Washington bullpen is scary. It’s difficult betting on the Nationals because they’re liable to give up any lead. Meanwhile, Eflin’s been good as of late and good this year against the Nats. Finally, the price on this game is out of whack. We see good baseball betting value here with Philadelphia at the underdog price.