Phillies vs. Braves Best Bet 5/25/22

by | Last updated May 25, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
Date: Wednesday, May 25th, 07:20 ET
Location: Truist Park
TV: Bally Sports Southeast
Money Line: Phillies +117 / Braves -140 (Get the best lines >>>)
Total Line: 8.5


Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (4-2, 4.12)
Atlanta: Charlie Morton (3-3, 4.95)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Odubel Herrera CF
Jean Segura 2B
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Johan Camargo SS
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Ranger Suarez P

Braves Projected Lineup

Adam Duvall CF
Travis Demeritte RF
Ozzie Albies 2B
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Travis d’Arnaud C
Austin Riley 3B
Dansby Swanson SS
Marcell Ozuna LF
Matt Olson 1B
Charlie Morton P


Philadelphia Phillies: 20-23-0 SU / OU 22-19-2 / Run Line W/L 22-21-0
Atlanta Braves: 20-23-0 SU / OU 24-16-3 / Run Line W/L 20-23-0

The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, May 25th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-140), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Phillies suffered a 1 run loss to Atlanta by a score of 6-5. Philadelphia’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 14 hits, leading to 6 runs. Offensively, they finished with 5 runs on 10 hits. Philadelphia’s loss came as the underdog, getting 160.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 8.5 runs. This result being part of a larger trend, as Philadelphia has the over has hit in more than half of their games (22-19-2).

In their last 5 games, the Phillies are below .500, at 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -2. During this stretch, the offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 4.56. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 4-9-1.

The Braves will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Phillies by a score of 6-5. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Braves staff allowed 10 hits. Offensively, they finished with 6 runs on 14 hits. Heading into action, Atlanta was the favorite, at -180.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 34 games, winning at a rate of 53.0%. The Braves and Phillies went over the run total line set at 8.5 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 24-16-3.

Across their last 5 contests, the Braves are above .500, going 3-2. They have managed to pick up these wins despite having a negative run differential of their last 5 games (-1). Atlanta has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.2 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.09. Atlanta has a below .500 series record of just 3-6-5.


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Pitching Matchup

Ranger Suarez gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 4-2. To date, Suarez has an ERA of 4.12 while lasting an average of 4.89 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.269. Home runs have been an issue for Suarez, as he is allowing an average of 1.15 per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Suarez has a strikeout percentage of just 19.0% and a per game average of 4.125. Throughout the season, Suarez has avoided walking batters, allowing just 3.43 per contest.

Charlie Morton gets the start for the Braves, with an overall record of 3-3. So far, Morton has put together an ERA of 4.95. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.0 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.25. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against Morton, as he is allowing just 0.9 per 9 innings. Morton is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 4.625 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 21.0%. Command has been a problem for Morton, as he is giving up 4.28 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs Atlanta History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will be their 2nd meeting of the season. So far, the teams have each won 1 time. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-0. The average run total in these games is 8.37 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.5 runs. Dating back to last season, Atlanta picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-10. Last year, the Phillies and Braves averaged 8.37 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.53 runs per contest.

More Picks: Get our Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox Top Bet >>>

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home
  • Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Prediction

For Wednesday’s game between Atlanta and Philadelphia, I recommend taking the over, as both the Braves and Phillies have been good against left-handed pitching. So far, Atlanta ranks 8th in homers vs lefties, while Philadelphia comes in at 2nd. Look for this to be a high-scoring game, surpassing the betting line of 8.5 runs.

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