Phillies vs. Braves Moneyline Bet 5/26/22
Philadelphia Phillies (20-24) vs. Atlanta Braves (21-23)
When: 7:20 p.m., Thursday, May 26
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
Moneyline: PHI +100/ATL -120
Runline: Phillies +1.5/Braves -1.5
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (1-4, 3.96 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) vs. Kyle Wright (4-2, 2.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)
Don’t Hit It Here
There’s a bit of a dirty secret in Philadelphia right now: the Phillies’ defense is once again not very good. In the name of fairness, this isn’t really the Phillies’ fault, as injuries have forced Philadelphia to play with several suboptimal lineups in the field in order to get their best bats on the field. The Phillies expected to take full advantage of the National League finally adopting the designated hitter by signing Nick Castellanos, whose defensive skills have never been anywhere near as good as his offense.
But then Bryce Harper got hurt, which meant that he’s unable to play the field until around August but could get his bat in the lineup. Obviously, the Phillies aren’t about to bench their best hitter, nor are they going to stick Castellanos on the bench until Harper gets healthy enough to play right field, which has meant Castellanos has had to play outfield instead of DH. The Phils’ defense has been predictably poor, as errors caused them to give away each of the past two games against the Braves.
However, the Phillies have managed to outscore their defensive miscues, as their run differential is a surprising plus-10. The Phils might not be good at defense, but they whack the ball often enough to make up for the struggles in the field.
The slugging numbers for the Braves suggest that they’re going to start stringing together some wins soon, and when they do, they’re going to be quite dangerous. They might already be there, as Atlanta has averaged five runs a game over its past seven contests and has hammered the ball pretty good against the Marlins and Phillies. Atlanta has only been average at actually getting on base, but when the Braves do find space in the defense, they tend to make the most of it by squeezing out extra-base hits and taking advantage of their chances.
The Braves rank fifth in the majors in doubles with 75, and as long as they keep finding the spots in the defense — not a tough assignment with the Phillies’ weak defense. So far in this series, the Braves have hit the Phillies for 17 runs in three games, and the way Aaron Nola has struggled this season suggests that Atlanta is in line to put up a solid number.
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Keeping the Mindset
While it is still somewhat early in the season, the fact remains that nearly one-third of the MLB campaign in 2022 is now gone, and the Phillies and Braves are already showing signs of having to look up at the Mets at the end of the year (New York holds a seven-game lead on second-place Atlanta). Beyond that, the Brewers and the Dodgers/Padres are likely locked into one of the three-division champion playoff spots, while the Cardinals are hanging around right behind Milwaukee, which means only one team is likely to get a wild card out of the NL East. Even that isn’t for sure, as San Francisco is still competent, and Arizona has suggested that it might be a bit of a factor itself in this race.
That could lead to some real pressure between these teams, as these two have the talent to scare a team in a short series. But it looks like only one of these teams has a chance to join the Mets in the postseason, which means this is as important as an early-season series gets.
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- The Phillies are 2-5 in their past seven games overall.
- The Phillies are 6-13 in their past 19 games as a road underdog.
- The Braves have won four straight games as a favorite.
- The Braves are 5-2 in their past seven against the National League East.
- The over is 9-1-1 in the Phillies’ past 11 road games.
- The over is 5-0-1 in the Phillies’ past six games as a road underdog.
- The over is 8-1-1 in the Braves’ past ten games following a win.
- The over is 12-3-1 in the Braves’ past 16 home games.
- The Phillies are 20-41 ATS in their past 61 meetings against the Braves.
- The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Atlanta.
We might have a twin suppression from the rain and the wind, as there’s the possibility of a delay in the early going, and the wind will blow in at 12 miles per hour from center field on a 73-degree night. However, a delay could blow the starters off the mound, which could open the door to the teams’ poor bullpens.
The Phillies are starting to hit well but are doing basically nothing to keep teams from putting up big numbers against them. They just do not have a strong enough defense to keep good-hitting teams from putting up big numbers against them, which is why the over is again a solid play.
For the game, I’ll take Atlanta, as the Braves’ bats are stepping it up and have learned that all they need to do is put the bat on the ball and let the Phillies screw up in the field. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100). Already have an account there but still want a 100% bonus? We’ve got a special deal where you can deposit $100 to $500 and get a 100% REAL CASH bonus at Betnow Sportsbook as well! (Must use bonus code PREDICTEM).
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