Phillies vs. Cardinals Analysis & Moneyline Bet

by | Jul 8, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals

Date: Friday, July 8th, 08:15 ET

Location: Busch Stadium

TV: Bally Sports Midwest

Money Line: Phillies -110 / Cardinals -110 (Bovada - Top 3 sportsbook on the web!)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (7-4, 2.66)
St. Louis: Adam Wainwright (6-6, 3.26)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Odubel Herrera CF
Alec Bohm 3B
J.T. Realmuto C
Didi Gregorius SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Bryson Stott 2B
Darick Hall 1B
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Zack Wheeler P

Cardinals Projected Lineup

Dylan Carlson CF
Conner Capel LF
Nolan Gorman 2B
Juan Yepez RF
Nolan Arenado 3B
Andrew Knizner C
Paul Goldschmidt 1B
Tommy Edman 2B
Brendan Donovan LF
Adam Wainwright P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Philadelphia Phillies: 44-39-0 SU / OU 40-39-3 / Run Line W/L 42-41-0
St. Louis Cardinals: 45-40-0 SU / OU 31-43-7 / Run Line W/L 46-39-0

The St. Louis Cardinals host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, July 8th at Busch Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:15 ET. The MLB Odds Board places St. Louis as the favorite (-110), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

Heading into today’s game, Philadelphia will be looking to tack on another win after taking down the Nationals by the score of 5-3. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 1 run on 8 hits. The Phillies lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 8 hits, leading to 5 runs. Philadelphia picked up the win, despite getting 220.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Phillies and Nationals fell short of the over-under betting line of 7.5 runs. Philadelphia games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 40-39-3.

The Phillies come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +3. Philadelphia has put together this record, despite averaging just 3.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.38. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 12-13-1.

In their last game, the Cardinals picked up a close win over the Braves by a score of 3-2. For the game, the pitching staff held the Braves to 2 runs on 8 hits. The Cardinals’ offense ended the game with just 3 runs on 8 hits. Heading into action, St. Louis was the favorite at -220.0. So far, the team has won 64.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Cardinals and Braves’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. Now, St. Louis had an over-under record of 31-43-7.

Across their last 5 contests, the Cardinals are above .500, going 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +12 (last 5). St. Louis has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 4.8 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 5.00. On the season, St. Louis has won more than half of their series, going 12-8-6.

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Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Zack Wheeler to the mound with an overall record of 7-4. In his previous outings, Wheeler has lasted an average of 5.87 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.66. So far, batters are hitting just 0.225 against him. Not only does Wheeler have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.51 HR/9. On the season, Zack Wheeler has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28%. This includes a per game average of 6.6 K’s per game. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Wheeler is averaging 2.05 free passes per outing.

Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals, with an overall record of 6-6. Through 16 appearances, Wainwright has an ERA of just 3.26 while averaging 6.01 innings per appearance. Across his previous starts, opposing teams have put together a batting average of 0.261. Throughout the season, Wainwright has done a good job at limiting home runs, allowing 0.84 per 9 innings. Overall, Adam Wainwright has struck out 20.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 5.06 K’s per game. Wainwright comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 2.51 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia vs St. Louis History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals will be their 4th meeting of the season. Philadelphia has the lead in the series at 2-1. Through 3 games, the series’ over-under record is 1-2, with the average run total sitting at 7.29 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 2.33 runs. Last season, Philadelphia picked up the series win, 4 games to 3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 2-4, with the average run total being 7.29 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.0 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
  • Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
  • Cardinals are 16-7 in their last 23 Friday games.
  • Cardinals are 11-5 in their last 16 home games.

Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Heading into Friday’s National League matchup between Philadelphia and St Louis, the oddsmakers have the game as a pick’em. However, look for the Cardinals to pick up a home win, as I expect a rebound performance from Adam Wainwright. In his last outing vs Philadelphia, Wainwright gave up 4 runs in 5 2/3 innings. However, throughout the season, the veteran has been better when pitching at home. I like the Cardinals on the moneyline.

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