Phillies vs. Marlins Total Play 7/17/22

by | Jul 17, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins

Date: Sunday, July 17th, 01:40 ET

Location: LoanDepot park

TV: Bally Sports Florida

Money Line: Phillies -155 / Marlins +130 (WagerWeb - Football is coming! They have killer 20 point teasers!)

Total Line: 7.0

STARTING PITCHING

Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (5-7, 3.35)
Miami: Trevor Rogers (4-8, 5.42)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Matt Vierling RF
Darick Hall 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Didi Gregorius SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Yairo Munoz 3B
J.T. Realmuto C
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

Marlins Projected Lineup

Brian Anderson 3B
Miguel Rojas SS
Avisaíl García RF
Jesus Sanchez CF
Jacob Stallings C
Jorge Soler LF
Jesús Aguilar 3B
Joey Wendle 2B
Garrett Cooper 1B
Trevor Rogers P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Philadelphia Phillies: 48-43-0 SU / OU 47-42-2 / Run Line W/L 48-43-0
Miami Marlins: 43-47-0 SU / OU 42-43-5 / Run Line W/L 44-46-0

The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, July 17th at LoanDepot park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-155), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

In Philadelphia’s last game vs the Marlins, the Phillies came away with a 10-0 win. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 0 runs on 5 hits. The Phillies lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 15 hits, leading to 10 runs. In the matchup, Philadelphia was favored at -105.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 59 of their games, winning at a rate of 56%. Together, the Phillies and Marlins combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.5 runs. This result is part of a larger trend, as Philadelphia has had the over hit in more than half of their games (47-42-2).

Over the Phillies’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -1. A key reason for Philadelphia’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 3.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.69. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 13-14-2.

Miami is coming off a 10-run loss to the Phillies. Dropping the game 10-0. On their way to giving up 10 runs, the Marlins staff allowed 15 hits. The Marlins’ offense ended the game with just 0 runs on 5 hits. Leading into the game, Miami was the betting favorite at -115.0. So far, the team has won 60.0% of the games in which they were favored. In terms of the over-under, the Marlins and Phillies combined to surpass the line of 7.5 runs. Against the run total, Miami is just 42-43-5.

In their last 5 contests, the Marlins have just 2 wins, going 2-3. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -10 over their previous 5 games. If Miami is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 2.2 runs per game, compared to a season average of 4.12. Miami has a below .500 series record of just 9-16-4.

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Pitching Matchup

Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 5-7. To date, Nola has an ERA of 3.35 while lasting an average of 6.56 innings per appearance. Through 18 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.216. Per 9 innings pitched, Nola is averaging 0.99 home runs allowed. On the season, Aaron Nola has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28%. This includes a per game average of 7.06 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.14 walks per contest.

The Miami Marlins will send Trevor Rogers to the mound with an overall record of 4-8. So far, Rogers has put together an ERA of 5.42. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.59 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.273. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Rogers. This year, he is allowing 1.15 HR’s per 9 innings pitched. Overall, Trevor Rogers has struck out 21.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 4.35 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Rogers, as he is giving up 4.5 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs Miami History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins will be playing their 10th game of the season. Philadelphia has the lead in the series at 5-4. Through 9 games, the series’ over-under record is 5-4, with the average run total sitting at 7.74 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.22 runs. Dating back to last season, Miami picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-11. Last year, the Phillies and Marlins averaged 7.74 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.11 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Philadelphia’s last 9 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami’s last 5 games at home

Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s NL East matchup between Philadelphia and Miami, the over-under line is set at 7 runs. In his first start vs the Marlins, Aaron Nola allowed just 2 runs across 7 innings. In that game, the teams combined for just 5 runs. With Philadelphia dealing with injuries in their lineup, I see this being a low-scoring game. I recommend taking the under.

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