Phillies vs. Padres Analysis & Free Pick 6/24/22

by | Last updated Jun 24, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres

Date: Friday, June 24th, 09:40 ET

Location: Petco Park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Phillies -114 / Padres -106 (Bovada – INCREDIBLE live betting platform! Blows away the competition plus they give you a 50% real cash bonus!)

Total Line: 7.0


Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (4-4, 3.11)
San Diego: Mackenzie Gore (4-3, 3.64)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Alec Bohm 3B
Matt Vierling CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Didi Gregorius SS
Johan Camargo SS
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

Padres Projected Lineup

Nomar Mazara RF
Ha-seong Kim 3B
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jorge Alfaro C
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Mackenzie Gore P


Philadelphia Phillies: 37-34-0 SU / OU 40-29-2 / Run Line W/L 35-36-0
San Diego Padres: 44-28-0 SU / OU 32-38-2 / Run Line W/L 39-33-0

The San Diego Padres host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, June 24th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-114), with an OU line set at 7.0.

Recent Form

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to pick up another big win, after they defeated the Padres by a score of 6-2. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 2 runs on 7 hits. The Phillies benefited from an offense that generated 6 runs on 8 hits. Philadelphia picked up the win, despite getting 134.0 on the moneyline. This game went over the posted over-under line of 7.0 runs. So far, Philadelphia has an above .500 over-under record of 40-29-2.

In their last 5 games, the Phillies are below .500, at 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -10. A key reason for Philadelphia’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.79. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 10-12-1.

San Diego is coming off a 4-run loss to the Phillies. Dropping the game 6-2. On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Padres staff allowed 8 hits. With their 7 hits, the Padres could only plate 2 runners. San Diego dropped the game despite being favored at -160.0. So far, the team has won 63.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Padres and Phillies went over the run total line set at 7.0 runs. On the season, the team has an over-under record of just 32-38-2.

In their last 5 games, the Padres have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +1. San Diego is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.4 runs per game, compared to a season-long mark of 4.71. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 13-7-3.


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Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Aaron Nola to the mound with an overall record of 4-4. Currently, Nola has an ERA of just 3.11 while pitching an average of 6.37 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.202 against him. Per 9 innings pitched, Nola is averaging 1.01 home runs allowed. In terms of strikeouts, Aaron Nola has a strong strikeout percentage of 28.9%, including a per game average of 7.07. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.1 walks per contest.

San Diego will roll with Mackenzie Gore (4-3) as their starter. So far, Gore has put together an ERA of 3.64. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.92 innings. So far, Gore has a batting average allowed of 0.238. Throughout the season, Gore has done a good job at limiting home runs, allowing 0.67 per 9 innings. Per game, Mackenzie Gore is averaging 5.55, on a strikeout percentage of 27.0%. Command has been a problem for Gore, as he is giving up 3.98 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs San Diego History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres will be their 5th meeting of the season. So far, the teams have each won 2 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-3. The average run total in these games is 8.33 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.0 runs. Going back to last year, Philadelphia won the season series, 4 games to 2. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 2-4. Last year, the Phillies and Padres averaged 8.33 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.0 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
  • Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego’s last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Diego’s last 12 games when playing Philadelphia

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into Friday night’s National League matchup between Philadelphia and San Diego, the Phillies have a slight edge on the moneyline. I recommend taking Philadelphia to pick up the win, as Aaron Nola has given up just 3 runs across his last 3 outings. On the other side, MacKenzie Gore has been roughed up in 2 straight trips to the mound.

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