Phillies vs. Padres Moneyline Bet 6/23/22

by | Jun 23, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (36-34) vs. San Diego Padres (44-27)

When: 9:40 p.m., Thursday, June 23

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

Moneyline: PHI +130/SD -150 (Bovada - Deposit $200 and get $100 FREE!)

Runline: Phillies +1.5/Padres -1.5

Total: 7

Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez (5-4, 4.43 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) vs. Joe Musgrove (8-0, 1.59 ERA, 0.92 WHIP)

Holding Serve in the West

San Diego was baseball’s biggest disappointment in 2021, but the Padres are now playing much better baseball and are right there with the Dodgers for the lead in the NL West. San Diego sits tied with the Dodgers for first in the NL West heading into this series with Philadelphia, and it’s becoming clear that the Padres have the talent to make their run at the NL West and beyond a realistic goal after falling well short last year.
The Phillies have a different problem: the Mets. Philadelphia was supposed to be competing for the NL East title this season, but the Mets got involved and have taken total control of the division. The key for the Phillies is to make sure that they don’t get themselves buried in the standings at this point in the season because, with the expansion of the playoffs to 12 teams, someone is going to have to qualify when all is said and done. The Phillies still have enough talent to make the playoff field, but they haven’t always played well as a unit. That was one of the reasons that Joe Girardi paid with his job, and the Phillies are showing signs of the bad old days coming back after losing three straight games to Washington and Texas. While the Padres are having no trouble holding serve, the Phillies have to get momentum going in their direction ASAP.

Interrupted Success

There’s been only one word for Joe Musgrove’s performance in his second year in San Diego: outstanding. Granted, Musgrove hasn’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of a schedule to this point, given that most of his wins have come against the Pirates, Reds, Marlins, Cubs, and Rockies at home, but you can only beat the teams who are actually on your schedule. Regardless of who he’s been facing, Musgrove has been dominant, never giving up more than two earned runs in a start.
The question is, will he be the same pitcher after his bout with COVID? Everyone reacts differently to the virus, and Musgrove had his momentum interrupted at a time when he was mowing down opposing lineups. He hasn’t given up more than seven hits in a game, and his strikeout numbers compared to his walks have been simply incredible. If he’s still the same pitcher he was before going out for a week, the Phillies are going to have a tough time here.

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One Way Traffic

Winning to nil is supposed to happen in soccer, not in baseball, but the Phillies and Padres got a weird trend going in their three-game set in Philadelphia earlier this season. For the series, the teams combined for a mere eight runs, with none featuring more than three runs scored. When all was said and done, the team that scored first was the only team that scored, as the opponent got shut out in all three situations.
That’s probably not going to happen again, but it does make the under an appealing play. With the total being set at seven, the number isn’t quite where you’d want an under to be, but the fact that Musgrove is on the mound makes it far more likely. As long as Suarez doesn’t get lit up, the under should be in play if Musgrove is back to his usual self.

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies have won six straight against teams above .500.
  • The Phillies have won five of their past six series openers.
  • The Padres are 10-4 in their past 14 against the NL East.
  • The Padres are 5-1 in their past six games after a win.
  • The over is 8-2-1 in the Phillies’ past 11 games as a road underdog.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Phillies’ past six games, with the total set between 7 and 8.5.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Padres’ past five games.
  • The under is 7-3 in the Padres’ past ten home games against a team with a winning record.
  • The Phillies are 39-18 in their past 57 meetings in San Diego.
  • The under is 5-1 in the teams’ past six meetings.

Weather Report

The weather should help the under toward a cash, as the temperature will hit a manageable 76 degrees, and wind will blow in toward the first base dugout at 11 miles per hour. Petco should play long in these conditions, which should help keep the score down.

Dan’s pick

My only worry with Musgrove right now is that I don’t know if I’m getting the pre-illness version that was mowing down the entire National League or a player who just isn’t quite where he needs to be at this point. Musgrove’s statistics this year suggest that he’s going to keep things rolling despite the minor setback, and Philadelphia really hasn’t shown that they can touch a pitcher of his caliber.
I’ll take the Padres here. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus (not a garbage free play) on your first deposit of $100 to $500 when you use bonus code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!

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