MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves
The Braves are heading in a good direction as of late, while the Brewers, not so much. But both are still right in the thick of National League playoff races. How are we playing Saturday’s night (7:10 ET) Milwaukee-Atlanta game with our daily free MLB picks?
Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Atlanta and Julio Teheran at around -105 over Milwaukee and Wade Miley, with an over/under of 9 runs. But early MLB betting action saw the lowest priced books move the Brewers to -105 to -110 favorites.
Milwaukee could also be found getting upwards of +150 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.
Atlanta took the opener of this series Friday night 10-1. The Braves scored three runs in the first inning off Brewers starter Freddy Peralta, two in the third and two in the fourth and breezed home from there for the win at -110 on the betting line. Also, Friday’s game played over a total of 8.5 runs.
So Atlanta is 9-3 over its last 12 games, while the Brewers are 1-4 over their last five contests.
At 66-53 overall Milwaukee now trails the first-place Cubs by three games in the NL Central. But the Brewers are also tied with Philadelphia for the lead in the National League wild-card race, a game up on third-place Arizona.
Meanwhile, at 63-50 the Braves are now tied for lead the NL East with those Phillies, 5.5 games clear of third-place Washington.
The Brewers lead this season series with Atlanta three games to two.
Teheran (8-7, 4.48), by our strict standards, is 10/22 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last three. Last Sunday he allowed three runs on five hits and four walks through 5 2/3 innings against the Mets, and over his last three starts he’s allowed 13 earned runs and 26 base-runners (hits + walks) through 15 innings. Nonetheless, on the season Atlanta is 13-9 with Teheran, with unders going 12-10.
In his most recent outing against Milwaukee, in June of last year, Teheran got nicked for seven runs in just three innings of a 7-0 Braves defeat.
Lefty Miley (2-1, 2.10) is 3/7 on quality starts this year, and two for five since coming off a stint on the DL. Last Sunday he gave up three runs on five hits and three walks through five innings against Colorado, and over his last five starts he’s allowed seven ER through 28 innings for a 2.25 ERA. On the year the Brewers are 4-3 in Miley’s starts, with overs going 4-3.
This will be Miley’s first start against Atlanta since 2015, when he was with Boston, and that’s already a long time ago.
Based on recent performance we’re giving Milwaukee and Miley our baseball handicapping check-mark for this pitching match-up.
Milwaukee ranks 15th in the Majors this year against right-handed pitching with a .250 team batting average, 19th with a .316 team OBP and 12th with a .416 team slugging percentage.
Atlanta ranks third against left-handed pitching with a .269 BA, seventh with a .334 OBP and third with a .455 slugging percentage.
So the Braves get our check-mark with the sticks for Saturday.
The Brewers bullpen, which was great for the first half of this season but has faltered lately, now ranks 11th in the ML with a 3.77 ERA and 16th with a 1.32 WHIP. That unit is also a bit short-handed, with a couple of relievers on the DL.
The Atlanta pen ranks 17th in ERA at 4.17 and 17th in WHIP at 1.33.
Because of the Milwaukee pen’s recent struggles we’re calling this category a push.
Unders are 26-22 in games played at SunTrust Park this year, which are averaging 8.8 total runs per.
Overs are 4-1 in Brewers-Braves games this season, which are averaging 9.6 runs.
Overs are 4-1-1 in Atlanta’s last six games.
Milwaukee is 15 games above .500, 52-37, against right-handed starters this season, while Atlanta is just .500, 18-18, against left-handed starters. And Miley’s been good as of late. We’re betting the Brewers to bounce back Saturday, and hoping their bullpen won’t get too involved.