Pirates vs. Cubs Best Bet 7/26/22

by | Last updated Jul 26, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs
Date: Tuesday July 26th, 02:20 ET
Location: Wrigley Field
TV: ATT SportsNet-PIT
Money Line: Pirates +130 / Cubs -155 (SportsBetting.ag)
Total Line: 8.5


Pittsburgh: Bryse Wilson (1-5, 6.52) Chicago: Keegan Thompson (7-4, 3.54)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Oneil Cruz SS Cal Mitchell RF Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B Ben Gamel LF Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B Jason Delay C Josh VanMeter 2B Kevin Newman SS Bryan Reynolds CF Bryse Wilson P

Cubs Projected Lineup

Frank Schwindel 1B Alfonso Rivas 1B Nico Hoerner SS Seiya Suzuki RF Patrick Wisdom 3B Christopher Morel 2B Willson Contreras C Ian Happ LF Rafael Ortega CF Keegan Thompson P


Pittsburgh Pirates: 40-57-0 SU / OU 39-51-7 / Run Line W/L 50-47-0 Chicago Cubs: 39-57-0 SU / OU 44-46-6 / Run Line W/L 49-47-0

The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, July 26th at Wrigley Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 02:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Chicago as the favorite (-155), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Pirates suffered a 1 run loss to the Cubs by a score of 3-2. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Cubs to just 3 runs on 9 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 2 runs on 8 hits. Pittsburgh’s loss came as the underdog, getting 125.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 8.0 runs. This outcome pushed Pittsburgh’s over-under record further below .500 at 39-51-7.

The Pirates will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -3. In their last 5 contests, Pittsburgh is averaging 3.4 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 3.60. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 8-17-7.

The Cubs are coming off a tight 3-2 win over the Pirates. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 8 hits. At the plate, the Cubs only came through for 3 runs on 9 hits. In the game, Chicago was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -145.0. So far, the team has won 42.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Cubs and Pirates’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 44-46-6.

Over their last 5 games, the Cubs have not lost a game, going 5-0. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +20. Compared to their season average, the Cubs come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 6.2 runs per game. Chicago has a below .500 series record of just 11-15-5.

Pitching Matchup

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Bryse Wilson to the mound with an overall record of 1-5. So far, Wilson has put together an ERA of 6.52. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.1 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.322. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Wilson, averaging 1.46 homers per 9 innings pitched. Wilson is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.17 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 16.0%. Throughout the season, Wilson has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.9 per contest.

The Chicago Cubs will send Keegan Thompson to the mound with an overall record of 7-4. So far, Thompson has put together an ERA of 3.54. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.05 innings. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.245. So far, Thompson has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.78 home runs per 9 innings. Overall, Keegan Thompson has struck out 22.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 3.75 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Thompson, as he is giving up 3.21 walks per outing.

Pittsburgh vs Chicago History

For the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs will be playing their 15th game of the season. So far, Pittsburgh is leading the season series, 8-6. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-9. The average run total in these games is 8.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.36 runs. Chicago won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 14 wins to 5. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-9. Last year, the Pirates and Cubs averaged 8.84 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 2.53 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
  • Pittsburgh is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
  • Chi Cubs is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Chi Cubs is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s National League Central matchup between Chicago and Pittsburgh, the Cubs are the favorite on the moneyline. Even though Chicago has struggled of late with Keegan Thompson on the mound, I expect them to continue their hot streak. I recommend taking the Cubs on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Cubs Moneyline

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