The Texas Rangers (36-39) head to PNC Park to face the Pittsburgh Pirates (30-46) in an interleague matchup featuring one of baseball’s premier arms. After being swept by Kansas City at home, the Rangers desperately need to right the ship, and Jacob deGrom provides the perfect opportunity against a struggling Pirates team. The contrast between deGrom’s elite performance and Michael Burrows’ inexperience creates a significant pitching mismatch that savvy bettors should capitalize on, especially with Texas motivated to snap their three-game skid.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Rangers -1.5 (+110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-125) ★★★★★
- Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105) ★★★☆☆
- Find the most MLB prop bets online at Bovada Sportsbook!
Texas Rangers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Texas Rangers | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -188 (Bet it cheaper at BAS!) | +156 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+110) | +1.5 (-130) |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Rangers -175, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The movement from -175 to -188 on the Rangers moneyline indicates professional money is backing Texas despite their recent struggles. What’s most revealing is that sharp bettors aren’t deterred by the Rangers’ three-game losing streak – they’re recognizing the massive pitching mismatch with deGrom on the mound. While some recreational money is likely keeping the Pirates run line from moving further, the professionals clearly view Texas as the superior side. With nearly 70% of the money on the Rangers but only about 60% of tickets, we’re seeing larger wagers from sharper players backing Texas.
Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom vs Michael Burrows – Who Has the Edge?
Texas Rangers: Jacob deGrom (6-2, 2.19 ERA)
- Has been elite across 82.1 innings with 80 strikeouts and just 17 walks
- Opponents batting a measly .195 against him this season
- WHIP of 0.91 ranks among the best in baseball
- Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of his last 10 starts
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Burrows (1-1, 4.24 ERA)
- Just 23.1 innings pitched at the MLB level this season
- Struggling with control (7 walks in limited innings)
- WHIP of 1.33 indicates traffic on the basepaths
- Has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in any start this season
Advantage: Massive edge to Texas. deGrom is pitching like a Cy Young contender while Burrows is still finding his footing at the major league level. This is one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the weekend.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Rangers’ relief corps has been a strength, posting a collective 3.45 ERA over the past two weeks. Luke Jackson (9 saves) and Robert Garcia (5 saves) provide solid late-inning options, while Chris Martin has been outstanding with 10 holds and a sub-2.00 ERA. The Pirates’ bullpen has shown flashes with David Bednar (10 saves) and Dennis Santana (5 saves) as anchors, but they’ve been inconsistent and overworked, pitching to a 4.83 ERA in their last 12 games. After Thursday’s doubleheader in Detroit, several key Pirates relievers may be unavailable or limited, giving Texas another significant advantage if this game stays close into the later innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Rangers are 13-23 on the road this season but 5-2 in deGrom’s last 7 road starts
- Pittsburgh is 19-19 at home but just 8-23 against teams with winning road records
- Texas is 22-12 when recording at least 8 hits in a game
- The Pirates are 13-3 when scoring 5+ runs but just 17-43 when scoring fewer
- Rangers are 9-2 in deGrom’s last 11 starts and 6-1 when he pitches 6+ innings
- Pittsburgh is 4-11 in interleague play this season
- The under is 7-3 in deGrom’s last 10 starts
- Texas has won 7 of their last 9 interleague games against sub-.500 teams
Wyatt Langford’s Emergence: The Rookie Finding His Stride
While the Rangers’ offense has struggled collectively, rookie Wyatt Langford has been a bright spot, slashing .291/.348/.522 in June with 4 homers and 9 RBIs. His approach against right-handed pitching (13 HR on the season) makes him particularly dangerous against Burrows. The Pirates’ young starter has allowed a .306 average to right-handed batters with significant power, creating a favorable matchup for Langford. With Corey Seager mired in a slump, Langford has stepped up as the Rangers’ most consistent offensive threat and looks poised to continue his hot streak at PNC Park, where the right field dimensions could benefit his pull-side power.
PNC Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
PNC Park ranks as one of the more pitcher-friendly venues in baseball, particularly for suppressing home runs. The spacious left field and deep notch in left-center has historically helped left-handed pitchers, but deGrom’s arsenal is effective regardless of venue. The forecast calls for mild temperatures around 72°F with light winds, creating neutral hitting conditions. This park favors pitchers who can generate weak contact and limit fly balls – precisely deGrom’s strengths. His career 2.41 ERA in pitcher-friendly parks demonstrates his ability to take advantage of these conditions, while Burrows’ tendency to yield hard contact could be exploited despite the park dimensions.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Rangers-Pirates Showdown
Primary Play: Rangers -1.5 (+110)
I’m backing the Rangers run line with confidence here. Jacob deGrom gives Texas an overwhelming pitching advantage that should translate to a multi-run victory. When deGrom is on the mound, the Rangers typically need just modest offensive production to cover the run line – something they should achieve against an inexperienced Burrows. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in runs scored and will struggle to generate offense against one of baseball’s premier arms. The plus-money odds make this an outstanding value, and I expect Texas to win by 3+ runs.
Strong Value Play: Under 7.5 Runs (-105)
This total feels a touch high with deGrom on the mound against a Pirates lineup that ranks near the bottom in most offensive categories. Pittsburgh is averaging just 3.22 runs per game, and deGrom has held opponents to two or fewer runs in 9 of his last 10 starts. While the Rangers’ offense could potentially push this over by themselves if they explode, both teams have played to the under in recent games (7 of the last 10 for Texas, 6 of the last 9 for Pittsburgh). The spacious dimensions of PNC Park and evening start time should further suppress scoring.
Worth Considering: Jacob deGrom Over 1.5 Earned Runs (-140)
This prop offers solid value despite the juice. The Rangers will be cautious with deGrom’s pitch count (he hasn’t exceeded 95 pitches this season), which could lead to him exiting after 6-7 innings. While he’s been dominant, the Pirates have shown occasional power with Oneil Cruz and have scored at least two runs in 11 straight games. deGrom may surrender an earned run or two before handing it over to the bullpen, making this a prudent play at reasonable odds.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | Over 7.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★★★ |
| Wyatt Langford | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Michael Burrows | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -140 | ★★★★☆ |
| Evan Carter | To Record an RBI | +155 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Oneil Cruz | Under 0.5 Hits | +170 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: deGrom’s Dominance Makes Rangers the Clear Choice
After watching the Rangers get swept at home by Kansas City, some might be hesitant to back Texas here. However, Jacob deGrom represents the ultimate slump-buster for the Rangers. His elite performance this season (2.19 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) should neutralize Pittsburgh’s already anemic offense, while the Rangers’ bats have a significant advantage against the inexperienced Burrows. Texas may be struggling overall, but they’re 9-2 in deGrom’s last 11 starts for a reason. The combination of Pittsburgh’s offensive woes (3.22 runs/game) and deGrom’s dominance creates a perfect storm for a Rangers bounce-back win. Look for Texas to halt their losing streak with a convincing victory at PNC Park.
Score Prediction: Rangers 5, Pirates 1
