Rays vs. Yankees Game 4 Pick

by | Oct 8, 2020 | mlb

Tampa Bay Rays (40-20) vs. New York Yankees (33-27), 10/8/20
Time: 7:10 pm ET Thursday, Oct. 8
Where: Petco Park
TV: TBS
Listed Pitchers: Ryan Thompson (1-2, 3.94) vs. Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 5.11)

Moneyline: Rays +130/Yankees -140 (Bitcoin Betting)
Over/Under: 9.5

The Yankees find themselves on the brink of elimination, down two games to one to the Rays in this best-of-five American League divisional-round playoff series, heading into Game 4 Thursday night on neutral ground out in San Diego. New York bombed its way toward victory in Game 1 of this series, but Tampa rode its bats to wins the next two games. Who do we like for our free MLB playoffs pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Game 4’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Montgomery at around -130 over Tampa and Thompson, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Yankees about a dime, to -140.

The Yanks could also be found getting around +140, giving the run and a half on the run line.

Rays vs. Yanks Game 4 Set-Up

New York is the home team for Thursday’s game.

The Yankees took the opener of this ALDS Monday 9-3, but the Rays won 7-5 Tuesday and 8-4 Wednesday to take a 2-1 series lead. Game 3 was tied at 1-1 through three innings Wednesday, but Tampa pulled away with three runs in the fourth, one in the fifth and three more in the sixth, then held on from there.

The Yankees won Monday as -155 favorites on the MLB betting odds, but the Rays won as -120 chalk Tuesday and as +125 dogs Wednesday.

Also, Wednesday’s game played over its total of nine runs. So the overs are 3-0 in this series.

The Rays took the season series from the Yankees this year eight games to two, although several big New York bats missed several of those games.

Game 4 Starting Arms

Lefty Montgomery, by our strict standards, is a “perfect” 0/10 on quality starts this season. In his most recent outing two weeks ago, he gave up three runs and six hits through 5 1/3 innings, although he also struck out eight while walking none in a 4-1 Yankees loss to Toronto. And just before that, he got nicked for four runs through 4 2/3 innings against Boston, although New York won that game 6-5.

On the season, the Yankees are 5-5 with Montgomery, but only 2-4 over his last six starts.

In his only start this season against Tampa Bay, one month ago, Montgomery got bombed for four runs and five hits, including two home runs, through just 2/3 of an inning in a 5-2 New York defeat.

Rookie righty Thompson is 0/1 on quality starts this year, serving as an “opener” once before, to go along with 24 appearances in relief. Most recently, he tossed two scoreless innings of relief in Game 1 of this ALDS Monday, allowing three hits, needing only 21 pitches to get six outs. And over his last five appearances, he’s allowed no runs and four hits through six total innings, with zero walks and five strikeouts.

In his only start of this season, which came against the Yankees back in August, Thompson threw two innings of scoreless ball in a 5-3 Rays win. Over seven appearances this year against New York, Thompson allowed four runs and 12 hits through nine total innings.

Game 4 Batting Splits

Tampa batted .237 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .339 team OBP and a .455 team slugging percentage. The Rays have since scored 29 runs over their five playoff games.

New York batted .254/.350/.461 vs. right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top five in the Majors in this split. The Yankees have since scored 40 runs over their five playoff games.

The Bullpens

The Rays bullpen posted a 3.56 ERA this season, along with a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.29 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top three bullpens in the Majors this year.

The Yankees pen put up a 4.35 ERA this season and a 1.24 WHIP, along with a 3.14 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Tampa Bay played 9-8 against left-handed starters this season.

New York played 26-19 against right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

Unders played 31-26 in Rays games during the regular season, but the overs are 4-1 in Tampa’s postseason games.

Overs played 29-27 in Yankees games during the regular season, and they’re 5-0 in New York’s postseason.

Totals are split 15-15 in games played at Petco Park this season.

Free MLB Pick

New York would own the edge with the sticks here, but Tampa’s swinging some good bats, too, hitting three dingers Wednesday night. Ultimately, our guess is the bullpens are going to play a considerable part in Game 4, and we give the Rays the advantage in that department. Tampa isn’t afraid to use nine pitchers, helping negate what splits advantage the Yankees might have. Plus, the Rays are getting the underdog price. We like the betting value with Tampa Bay here. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by depositing $500 and getting $250 in FREE BETS at Bovada Sportsbook! They give you cash rebates on every wager, win lose or draw as well!

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