Red Sox vs. Guardians Best Bet

by | Last updated Jun 25, 2022 | mlb

Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Date: Saturday, June 25th, 06:10 ET

Location: Progressive Field


Money Line: Red Sox +117 / Guardians -140 (Find Dimeline Sportsbooks – You get paid more!)

Total Line: 8.5


Boston: Josh Winckowski (2-1, 3.68)
Cleveland: Shane Bieber (3-3, 3.12)

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Franchy Cordero 1B
Christian Vázquez C
Alex Verdugo LF
Jackie Bradley Jr. RF
Trevor Story 2B
Rafael Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Jarren Duran CF
Josh Winckowski P

Guardians Projected Lineup

Andrés Giménez 2B
Austin Hedges C
Oscar Gonzalez RF
Franmil Reyes LF
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan LF
Amed Rosario SS
Shane Bieber P


Boston Red Sox: 40-31-0 SU / OU 28-36-7 / Run Line W/L 39-32-0
Cleveland Guardians: 36-30-0 SU / OU 32-29-5 / Run Line W/L 37-29-0

The Cleveland Guardians host the Boston Red Sox on Saturday, June 25th at Progressive Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cleveland as the favorite (-140), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Boston looks to keep things rolling after taking down the Guardians by the score of 6-3. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Guardians to 3 runs on 12 hits. The Red Sox lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 12 hits, leading to 6 runs. Heading into their last game, Boston was the betting favorite, at -114.0. Through 46 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 63.0%. When looking at the over-under result, the Red Sox and Guardians matched the line set at 9.0 runs. With the teams matching the betting line, Boston’s over under record sits at 28-36-7, Boston.

In their last 5 games, the Red Sox have gone a perfect 5-0. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +13. Offensively, the team has put up 28 runs in their last 5 games. Boston’s season average comes in at 4.77 (5th. So far, Boston has won over half of their 23 series played, going 12-8-3.

Cleveland will look to move on from a 3 run loss to the Red Sox, falling by the score of 6-3. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 12 hits, leading to 6 runs. At the plate, the Guardians only came through for 3 runs on 12 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Cleveland came into the game as the underdog, getting 104.0. So far, the team has gone into 36 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 42.0%. Combined, the Guardians and the Red Sox matched the over-under total of 9.0. This outcome leaves Cleveland with an over-under line of 32-29-5.

In their last 5 games, the Guardians have put together a record of 3-2. Cleveland has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5 scoring margin sitting at 0. Cleveland has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 5.0 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.59. On the season, Cleveland has won more than half of their series, going 11-8-4.


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Pitching Matchup

Josh Winckowski gets the start for the Red Sox, with an overall record of 2-1. To date, Winckowski has an ERA of 3.68, while lasting an average of 4.73 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.293. This season, Winckowski has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.63 per 9 innings. Winckowski has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 3.0 K’s per game on a K rate of 14%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.07 walks per contest.

Cleveland will roll with Shane Bieber (3-3) as their starter. Through 13 appearances, Bieber has an ERA of just 3.12 while averaging 6.0 innings per appearance. Together, opponents have a batting average of 0.251 against Bieber. So far, Bieber has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.69 home runs per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Shane Bieber has a strong K% of 26.0%, including a per game average of 6.46. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.96 walks per contest.

Boston vs Cleveland History

For the season, the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Guardians will be playing their 2nd game of the season. Boston has the lead in the series at 1-0. Through 1 game, the series’ over-under record is 0-0, with the average run total sitting at 10.5 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.0 runs. Last season, Boston picked up the series win, 4 games to 2. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-3. Last year, the Red Sox and Guardians averaged 10.5 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.5 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • Boston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games on the road
  • Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Cleveland is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games

Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s American League matchup between Boston and Cleveland the Guardians are the favorite on the moneyline. Although I see this being a tightly contested game, I give the edge to Shane Bieber, as he is putting together another outstanding season. I like the Guardians on the moneyline.

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