Red Sox vs. Mets Odds & Pick 4/27/21

by | Apr 27, 2021 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (14-9) vs. New York Mets (9-8)

When: 7:10 p.m., Tuesday, April 27

Where: Citi Field, New York

Moneyline: BOS +129/NYM -140 (Bovada - INCREDIBLE live wagering platform!)

Runline: Red Sox +1.5/Mets -1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Garrett Richards (0-2, 6.48 ERA, 1.86 WHIP) vs. David Peterson (1-2, 6.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)

Road Warriors?

So far, Boston has been one of the best bets on the diamond, in part because the Red Sox own a 6-1 record away from Fenway Park and were the underdog in four out of their seven road contests this season. Howev-er, whether that was a strength or merely a product of a weak schedule remains to be seen. Boston hasn’t played on the road since April 15, and the Red Sox’s road games in that stretch were against Baltimore and Minnesota, both of whom have shown themselves to be relatively weak opposition during the first month of the season.

When they’ve actually been able to play, the Mets have been a solid home team, boasting a 6-2 record at Citi Field that includes a sweep of the Phillies. The jury is still out on whether anyone in the NL East is truly a good team in 2021, but the Mets have done their job well at home and should represent a solid jump in the diffi-culty spike for the Red Sox’s road games.

Something’s Gotta Give

Boston has been one of the best over teams in the majors this year. The Mets have gone to the opposite end of the spectrum. The old problems with the Mets being all defense, little offense seem to have resurfaced in the season’s first month, as the under has gone 6-2-2 in the Mets’ past ten games entering this one. The un-der is cashing despite some rather low totals, such as a 6-0 win against Washington on April 23, where the un-der was set at 6.5. The only two instances of the “over” cashing came because the opponent’s bats exploded, as the Mets haven’t scored more than four runs in a game without holding the other team to one run or less since April 6.

Boston, on the other hand, has seen the public adjust much quicker to what it’s doing on the diamond. The Red Sox still aren’t really seen as a threat long-term, but they have shown that they can score in the right sit-uation. However, because Boston is a glamour team, the public tends to jump on trends and changes with the Red Sox before bettors have much of a chance to cash in on what they’ve seen in recent games. When it comes to the Red Sox, going against the grain is usually sensible.

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One Extreme to the Other

When David Peterson has been on, the Mets have been tough to beat in his starts. When he’s not on, any-one can beat New York. Peterson was mostly on last season, as he posted a 6-2 record with a 3.44 ERA. This year, Peterson has struggled a lot more, as he’s already taken as many defeats through 17 games as he did last year during the 60-game sprint.

One of the reasons Peterson isn’t getting results right now is because the lefty hasn’t done a great job miss-ing bats in his two defeats. In the win over Philadelphia, Peterson was effective because he fanned ten hit-ters in six innings of work and scattered three hits. In the two losses, Peterson was out of the game before the fifth inning and didn’t have much working as far as getting strikeouts. That could be problematic in this game because Boston doesn’t strike out all that often. The Red Sox have 189 K’s, which ranks just 18th in the majors. What Boston can do is hit, as the Red Sox have a .276 batting average, suggesting that if Peterson doesn’t miss bats, this is going to be another brief outing.

Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox have won their past six Tuesday games.
  • The Red Sox have won six of their past seven when coming off an off day.
  • The Mets are 1-4 in their past five interleague games.
  • The Mets are 3-9 in their past 12 games following a win.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Red Sox’s past five interleague games.
  • The under is 6-1-1 in the Mets’ past eight games as a home favorite.
  • The under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings.
  • The Red Sox are 4-1 in the past five meetings in New York.

Weather Report

This will be as mild as the weather ever gets, with temperatures at a comfortable 60 degrees and a slight breeze blowing south-southeast at 6 miles per hour and pushing out to left-center.

Dan’s pick

Boston’s road success might be a bit of a fluke so far, but I really don’t trust Peterson when the Red Sox are hitting as well as they are. Boston’s leading the majors in hitting at the moment, and if Peterson isn’t striking batters out, things usually aren’t going New York’s way. Throw in that the Red Sox are putting up strong num-bers, and I think the conditions are right to back the road dog.

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