Tarik Skubal’s 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP stand in stark contrast to Nick Lodolo’s 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP — a pitching gap this wide rarely sits on the same total line. Dodger Stadium’s mild run suppression adds pressure to a number already carrying over juice at -115, while the under sits at the friendlier -105. The dominant variable here is what Skubal does to a .230-hitting, .708 OPS Reds lineup.
Nick Lodolo vs. Tarik Skubal: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview
After last night’s 6-3 Dodgers win — a game where Los Angeles scored six runs on just three hits, aided by a Ke’Bryan Hayes throwing error — the pitching matchup shifts dramatically for Game 2. Emmet Sheehan handled the Reds capably. Tonight, the Dodgers hand the ball to Tarik Skubal, which is a meaningful upgrade. The Reds counter with Nick Lodolo, who is anything but a mirror image.
The total sits at 8.0, with the over juiced at -115 and the under priced at a friendlier -105. The numbers project a combined 9.1 runs — LAD 5, CIN 4 — which actually sits above the posted total. But that projection doesn’t fully account for what Skubal does to a lineup like Cincinnati’s. He should hold the Reds to three or fewer, which keeps the combined total at or below 8 and makes the under at -105 the right side. The question is whether Lodolo hands the Dodgers a crooked inning that blows past the number anyway.
The market is pricing in some over potential — books don’t load the over with juice without reason. But Dodger Stadium’s park factor of 0.98 mildly suppresses run scoring, and the better arm in this game is dramatically better. That gap doesn’t fully show up in the total price, and that’s the edge.
Game Info & Betting Lines
- Date/Time: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | 10:10 PM ET
- Venue: Dodger Stadium | Park Factor: 0.98 (mildly run-suppressing)
- TV: MLB.TV, SportsNet LA, Reds.TV
- Probable Starters: Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. Tarik Skubal (LAD)
- Moneyline: Cincinnati Reds +266 / Los Angeles Dodgers -339
- Run Line: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-144) / Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (+120)
- Total: 8.0 (Over -115 / Under -105)
Why This Number Is Close
The market has this set at 8.0 for a legitimate reason: Lodolo is a genuine over threat. His 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 116 innings tell you he allows traffic — 47 walks and 16 home runs in those innings means the Dodgers lineup, with Ohtani (.479 xwOBA vs. left-handed pitching), Freeman (.299 AVG), and Muncy (26 HR), can turn a Lodolo stumble into a three- or four-run inning without warning. Books know that. The -115 juice on the over reflects genuine concern that Lodolo implodes.
The case against the under isn’t imaginary. But here’s where I think the market is slightly off: it’s pricing in a scenario where Lodolo falls apart AND Cincinnati’s offense contributes, when the Reds carry a .708 team OPS and a .230 batting average into a stadium that slightly suppresses run scoring against one of the best starters in baseball. Skubal locks down Cincinnati’s half of the ledger. Even if Lodolo allows four Dodger runs, the Reds’ ability to push back is structurally limited. The combined total staying at or below 8 requires only one of these two things to be true — and Skubal makes the Reds’ side nearly certain. The under price at -105 reflects better value for the side the suppression profile supports. There’s marginal over-projection variance baked into the raw numbers, but the -105 price more than compensates for it.
What Separates the Pitching
The gap between these two starters is substantial, and it matters directly for the total. Tarik Skubal carries a 2.67 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over 165 innings — elite in both categories. His arsenal is built to neutralize exactly the kind of offense the Reds put on the field. His split-finger (26.9% usage, 91.4 mph) generates a .219 xwOBA and a 31.8% whiff rate — that’s a genuine swing-and-miss weapon. His four-seamer sits at 96.1 mph with a 23.3% whiff rate and .324 xwOBA against. At 8.78 K/9 with only 38 walks in 165 innings, Skubal creates low-traffic innings — the kind where the Reds strand runners rather than cash them.
Against this Cincinnati lineup, that matters. Elly De La Cruz has legitimate power (xwOBA .475, 8.8% barrel rate) but has gone 0-for-5 with five strikeouts in 11 plate appearances against Skubal in BvP history — a small sample, but directionally consistent with what the pitch data predicts. Tyler Stephenson is 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in limited looks as well. Skubal’s arsenal simply doesn’t match up favorably for the Reds’ profile.
Nick Lodolo operates in a completely different environment. His sinker is his primary pitch at 29.3% usage, but it generates a .403 xwOBA — hitters square it up. His slider (26% usage, .289 xwOBA) is his best offering and the reason he avoids complete disasters, but his 6.98 K/9 and 1.49 WHIP signal consistent baserunner accumulation. Ohtani’s .479 xwOBA against left-handed pitching — Lodolo throws from the left side — represents the clearest mismatch on the board. Freeman and Muncy hit lefties comfortably as well. Lodolo creates chaotic innings; Skubal creates predictable ones. That asymmetry pulls the total down.
The Pushback
The honest concern here is Lodolo’s ceiling for damage. He has surrendered 16 home runs in 116 innings, and the Dodgers lineup packs legitimate power — Ohtani (30 HR), Muncy (26 HR), and Freeman (16 HR) are all capable of turning a first-pitch sinker into a three-run shot. Lodolo’s curveball is a liability at .545 xwOBA, and his sinker, the pitch he throws nearly a third of the time, gets barreled at a rate that should concern anyone fading the over. If Lodolo gives up a three-run first and the Reds scrape two runs off Skubal somehow, you’re already sitting at 5 runs through three innings and sweating the back half.
The other real concern is the Dodgers’ bullpen. Edwin Diaz is on the IL with a neck issue, which removes their most reliable late-inning arm. If Skubal exits with a lead in the sixth or seventh, the bridge to a save situation is shakier than it looks on paper. A shaky bullpen inning — a walk, a wild pitch, a two-run single — can flip a comfortable under into a push or a loss in a hurry.
Those are legitimate objections. I’m not dismissing them. But Skubal’s suppression of the Reds’ offense is the dominant variable here, and the -105 price gives you enough cushion to accept the Lodolo volatility risk. The game shape I’m projecting: Skubal carries the Dodgers through six or seven innings with a 2-3 run lead, the Reds manage one or two runs at most, and the bullpen holds a slim advantage. That’s a comfortable under. The over needs Lodolo to collapse early AND the Reds to actually score — and at .230 AVG and .708 OPS against a 2.67 ERA pitcher, that combination is a low-probability outcome.
The Rejected Angle
The over at -115 is the fade here. Yes, the raw run projection of 9.1 sits above the posted total of 8.0, and in isolation that would point toward the over. But you’re paying -115 for a side that requires both pitchers to behave in a certain way — Lodolo has to give up runs (plausible) and Cincinnati has to score (much harder against Skubal). The under at -105 gives you a 10-cent line advantage and only requires Skubal to do what he’s been doing all season. Paying a premium to bet on Lodolo’s worst instincts when the better pitcher is on the other side isn’t a bet I want to make at that price.
The Pick
Bet: Reds/Dodgers Under 8.0 (-105) — 2 units
The pricing asymmetry between -115 over and -105 under is the entry point. Skubal’s arsenal — split-finger at .219 xwOBA, four-seamer at 96.1 mph with a 23.3% whiff rate — is built to neutralize a Cincinnati offense that hits .230 and carries a .708 OPS. The BvP data on De La Cruz (0-for-5, 5 K) and Stephenson (0-for-6, 5 K) is a small sample, but it reinforces what the pitch data already tells you. Lodolo creates real over exposure, but you’re getting compensated for that risk at -105. Two units on the under.
