Reds vs. Pirates Odds & ML PRediction 9/26/22

by | Last updated Sep 26, 2022 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Monday September 26th, 06:35 ET

Location: PNC Park

TV: ATT SportsNet-PIT

Money Line: Reds +108 / Pirates -130 (Betnow – Get a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you enter bonus code PREDICTEM)

Total Line: 8.0


Cincinnati: Chase Anderson (2-3, 5.21)
Pittsburgh: Roansy Contreras (5-5, 3.68)

Reds Projected Lineup

Spencer Steer 2B
Jose Barrero SS
Donovan Solano 1B
Aristides Aquino RF
Kyle Farmer 3B
Austin Romine C
Jake Fraley LF
TJ Friedl LF
Jonathan India 2B
Chase Anderson P

Pirates Projected Lineup

Michael Chavis 1B
Cal Mitchell RF
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Jack Suwinski LF
Jason Delay C
Rodolfo Castro 3B
Ben Gamel LF
Oneil Cruz SS
Bryan Reynolds CF
Roansy Contreras P


Cincinnati Reds: 60-93-0 SU / OU 73-76-4 / Run Line W/L 72-81-0
Pittsburgh Pirates: 56-97-0 SU / OU 69-74-10 / Run Line W/L 75-78-0

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on Monday September 26th at PNC Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Pittsburgh as the favorite (-130), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Cincinnati Reds will look to add another win to their resume after pulling out a slim 2-1 win over Milwaukee. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 1 run on 5 hits. The team was able to pick up the win despite scoring just 2 runs on their 6 hits. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 130.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Reds and Milwaukee stayed below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. This outcome pushed Cincinnati’s over-under record further below .500 at 73-76-4.

The Reds will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -9. A key reason for Cincinnati’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 2.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.12. Cincinnati’s overall series record is just 15-25-8.

Pittsburgh will look to move on from a 5 run loss to the Cubs, falling by the score of 8-3. On their way to giving up 8 runs, the Pirates staff allowed 10 hits. The Pirates’ offense ended the game with just 3 runs on 6 hits. Pittsburgh came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-130.0). So far, the team has won 52.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Pirates and Cubs went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. Against the run total, Pittsburgh is just 69-74-10.

The Pirates come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -13. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.6 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 3.59. Pittsburgh has a below .500 series record of just 10-32-7.

Pitching Matchup

Cincinnati will roll with Chase Anderson (2-3) as their starter. To date, Anderson has an ERA of 5.21 while lasting an average of 3.17 innings per appearance. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.164 against Anderson. Opponents have been able to hit for power against Anderson, as he has HR/9 figure of 1.42. Anderson has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 3.0 K’s per game on a K rate of 24.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 5.21 walks per contest.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Roansy Contreras to the mound with an overall record of 5-5. So far, Contreras has put together an ERA of 3.68. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.63 innings. Through 19 outings, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.224. Per 9 innings pitched, Contreras is giving up 1.12 home runs. On the season, Roansy Contreras has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 22.0%. This has led to an average of 4.42 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.78 walks per outing.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh History

For the season, the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates will be playing their 17th game of the season. Pittsburgh holds the edge in the series at 9-7. The over-under record in this series sits at 8-7. The average run total in these games is 10.47 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.88 runs. Last season, Cincinnati picked up the series win, 13 games to 6. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 12-5, with the average run total being 10.47 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 5.32 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 9 games
  • Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Heading into today’s NL Central matchup between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the Pirates have the slight edge on the money line. Although Pittsburgh starter Roansy Contreras is coming off a rough outing, I expect him to get back on track vs. a light-hitting Reds lineup. I like the Pirates on the money line.

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