Runline Best Bet: Padres vs. Dodgers 7/1/22

by | Last updated Jul 1, 2022 | mlb

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Date: Friday, July 1st, 10:10 ET

Location: Dodger Stadium

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Padres 141 / Dodgers -170 (Bovada – Check out their live betting platform! It blows away all the rest!)

Total Line: 7.5


San Diego: Blake Snell (0-5, 5.6)
Los Angeles: Tony Gonsolin (9-0, 1.58)

Padres Projected Lineup

Nomar Mazara RF
Ha-seong Kim 3B
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jorge Alfaro C
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 1B
Blake Snell P

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Cody Bellinger CF
Trayce Thompson RF
Max Muncy 3B
Chris Taylor LF
Justin Turner 3B
Hanser Alberto 2B
Will Smith C
Trea Turner SS
Freddie Freeman 1B
Tony Gonsolin P


San Diego Padres: 46-32-0 SU / OU 34-42-2 / Run Line W/L 41-37-0
Los Angeles Dodgers: 47-28-0 SU / OU 30-39-6 / Run Line W/L 43-32-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres on Friday, July 1st at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-170), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

San Diego heads into today’s action, looking to rebound from a 3-1 loss to the Dodgers. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Dodgers to just 3 runs on 5 hits. The Padres ended the game with just 1 run on 7 hits. San Diego’s loss came as the underdog, getting 110.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Padres and Dodgers stayed below the over-under line set at 8.0 runs. So far, San Diego has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 34-42-2.

After their 5 most recent games, the Padres have gone just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -4. On offense, San Diego’s offense has experienced a dip in production, averaging 3.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests. So far, San Diego has won over half of their 25 series played, going 13-8-4.

Los Angeles is coming off a 2 run win over the Padres (3-1). In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Padres to 1 run and 7 hits. With their 5 hits, the Dodgers could only muster 3 runs. In the game, Los Angeles was able to take care of business as they were the favorite at -130.0. So far, the team has won 63.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Dodgers and Padres’ run total fell below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Now, Los Angeles had an over-under record of 30-39-6.

Across their last 5 contests, the Dodgers are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +1 (last 5). Los Angeles has played above .500 baseball, despite averaging just 4.0 runs in their last 5 games. This is a drop in production compared to their season average of 5.05. On the season, Los Angeles has won more than half of their series, going 16-8-1.

Pitching Matchup

Blake Snell gets the start for the Padres, with an overall record of 0-5. So far, Snell has put together an ERA of 5.6. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.01 innings. So far, Snell has a batting average allowed of 0.239. So far, Snell has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 0.77 home runs per 9 innings. Snell has had trouble generating strikeouts, averaging just 5.43 K’s per game on a K rate of 24.0%. Command has been a problem for Snell, as he is giving up 4.84 walks per outing.

The Los Angeles Dodgers will send Tony Gonsolin to the mound with an overall record of 9-0. Heading into the game, Gonsolin has appeared in 14 contests, posting an ERA of just 1.58. On average, he pitches 5.29 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.157. Home runs have not been an issue for Gonsolin, as he is giving up just 0.73 per 9. Per game, Tony Gonsolin is averaging 4.93, on a strikeout percentage of 24.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.8 walks per outing.

San Diego vs Los Angeles History

For the season, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will be playing their 5th game of the season. Los Angeles holds the edge in the series at 3-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-3. The average run total in these games is 8.21 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 4.0 runs. Los Angeles won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 12 wins to 7. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-8. Last year, the Padres and Dodgers averaged 8.21 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.84 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego’s last 10 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
  • LA Dodgers is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing San Diego

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Heading into Friday’s NL West showdown between San Diego and Los Angeles, the Dodgers are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Not only will Los Angeles benefit from having Tony Gonsolin on the mound, but they should have no problem plating runners vs Blake Snell. In his 7 outings, the Padres have yet to win a game with Snell on the mound. I like Los Angeles to cover the runline.

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