San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 7/7/19

by | Jul 7, 2019 | mlb

San Diego Padres (44-45) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (60-31), 7/7/19
Time: 4:10 pm ET Sunday, July 7
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Listed Pitchers: Joey Lucchesi (6-4, 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs. Ross Stripling (3-2, 3.45, 1.26)
TV: FS San Diego, SportsNet LA

Moneyline: Dodgers -160/Padres +150 (BetOnline)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Dodgers own a massive lead in the NL West, but they’ve lost two of the first three games of this four-game rivalry series with the Padres, costing their financial backers some series cash the last couple of nights. How are we playing this series finale with our free MLB predictions?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened LA and Stripling at around -160 over San Diego and Lucchesi, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

The Dodgers could also be found getting around +125 giving the run and a half against the baseball betting run line.

Padres vs. Dodgers Set-Up

Los Angeles took the opener of this series Thursday night 5-1, but San Diego grabbed Friday night’s game 3-2, then won Saturday 3-1. The Dodgers prevailed as -225 favorites on the MLB betting lines Thursday but the Padres won as +175 underdogs Friday and +155 dogs Saturday.

Also, the first three games in this series have all played under their totals.

So San Diego has won back-to-back games, after losing five in a row.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, has lost two straight after winning four in a row.

At 60-31 overall the Dodgers lead in the NL West now stands at 14.5 games over both Colorado and Arizona. Los Angeles also leads Atlanta by 6.5 games in the battle for the best record in the National League.

At 44-45 overall the Padres trail the Dodgers by 15 games in the NL West. But they’re also only 2.5 games back of Washington and Milwaukee in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

LAD now leads the season series with San Diego five games to three.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Stripling, by our strict standards, is just 1/8 on quality starts this season, 0 for two since returning to the rotation following a stint out of the bullpen. But he’s actually been reasonably effective as a starter. Tuesday he gave up four runs and seven hits through 4 2/3 innings against Arizona, but the Dodgers won that game anyway 5-4. And over his four appearances previous to that he allowed just one earned run and seven hits through seven innings.

Los Angeles is 6-2 when Stripling starts this season, and he can take some credit for that.

In two appearances against the Padres, this season Stripling tossed two innings of hitless/scoreless ball, with four strikeouts. Last year, in four starts against San Diego, he allowed just two ER through 20 innings. But he’ll face a better Padres lineup Sunday than the ones he faced last year.

Lefty Lucchesi is 5/16 on quality starts this year but 0 for his last two. Last Sunday he held St. Louis to two runs and four hits through 5 1/3 innings but San Diego lost that game 5-3. And just before that, he gave up four runs and six hits through five innings against Pittsburgh.

The Padres are 8-8 with Lucchesi this season, but only 1-3 over his last four starts.

Over four career starts against the Dodgers, three last year and one earlier this season, Lucchesi allowed 15 ER and 23 hits through 17 2/3 innings. San Diego lost all four of those games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

San Diego is batting .242/.302/.427 against right-handed pitching this season. But the Padres have also scored a total of just 18 runs over their last six games.

Los Angeles is batting .258/.339/.448 against left-handed pitching this season.

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The Bullpens

The Padres bullpen owns a 4.80 ERA this season and a 1.32 WHIP while allowing a .759 OPS.

The Dodgers pen owns a 3.99 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP while allowing a .681 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 43-37 in Padres games this season.
  • Overs are 44-41 in Dodgers games this season.
  • Overs are 22-20 in games played at Dodger Stadium this season.
  • Unders are 5-3 in Padres-Dodgers games this season.
  • Unders are 5-2 in Stripling’s starts this season.

Free MLB Pick

Los Angeles gets the check-marks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks, and in the bullpens, so we’re going with the Dodgers here. And in chasing a better price, we’ll take a chance and give the run and a half against the run line.

Take the LA Dodgers -1.5 runs