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San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 9/21/18

by | Sep 21, 2018 | mlb

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (9/21/18)

Time: 10:10 PM ET
Where: Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles, California.
Listed Pitchers: Lauer (SD) & Hill (LAD)
TV: Spectrum SportsNet LA
Moneyline: Padres +250 / Dodgers -265 (Best line at 5Dimes)
Over/Under: 7.5ov -113

It’s a big game-one and three-game set for the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium versus divisional-foe San Diego thru the weekend. The Padres are one of the worst clubs in the National League and have been done-zo for quite some time now, but the Dodgers are still in a heated race for the playoffs. In the infamous words of Danny Green, Los Angeles is “who we thought they were.” Indeed, the Dodgers are starting to look like the best club in the NL of late and just swept the Colorado Rockies to take the lead in the NL West Divisional Standings with nine games remaining in their regular season slate. Dodgers Manager Dave Roberts is handing the ball to savvy vet Rich Hill to continue their winning ways and get them another step closer to clinching a Divisional Title and playoff berth.

San Diego, which of course means a whale’s …

You know it’s been another rough year for the Padres when it’s positive news that they’ve gone 5-5 (.500) in their last 10 decisions. San Diego’s 61-92 (.399) overall and only the Miami Marlins own a worse record in the National League Standings. In their previous game on Wednesday, the Padres beat the San Francisco Giants 8-4 at Petco Park. So, they should be fresh after a quick travel day on Thursday for Friday night’s contest at Dodger Stadium.

San Diego has nine games remaining before it’s time for golf and parasailing. Statistically, the Padres are a bad team this year which is no surprise. They rank 13th in the National League in runs scored (587) and runs allowed (726). The Padres -139 run-differential is second-worst in the NL. On the road, San Diego has accrued a 32-43 (.427) throughout their 2018 campaign.

Dodgers poised for another playoff push

Dave Roberts must be putting something in the water out in LA because his team has finally woken the hell up and is playing to their potential. On paper, the Dodgers are the best club in the NL and data backs that notion up as well. Los Angeles leads the NL in runs scored (735), runs allowed (579) and run differential (+156).

The Dodgers have won seven of their last eight games, including a crucial three-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies earlier this week. Consequently, the Dodgers are 85-68 (.556) and in first place in the NL West Standings with nine games in the regular season. They hold a two and a half-game edge over the Rockies in the NL West Standings right now. Another Houston Astros versus Los Angeles Dodgers World Series is looking like a distinct possibility right now, but of course, that remains to be seen. Los Angeles must take care of business at home against the lowly San Diego Padres this weekend. The Dodgers are 42-36 (.538) at Dodger Stadium this year. Dave Roberts’s club leads the season series against the Padres 12-4 thru 16 games and has outscored them 92-47.

Southpaw vs. Southpaw

Rookie Eric Lauer (5-7, 4.74 ERA & 1.58 WHIP) will take the hill for the visiting Padres Friday night. He’s accrued three straight no-decisions over his last three starts but has posted an exceptional 1.29 ERA and 0.79 WHIP during that stretch. Lauer has had the Dodgers number this year, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.61 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the best team in the National League. However, this will be Lauer’s first career start at Dodger Stadium which might be a different animal for the young left-hander. On the road in 2018, Lauer’s gone 2-3 in 10 starts while posting a 5.03 ERA and 1.79 WHIP.

Veteran lefty Rich Hill (9-5, 4.02 ERA & 1.21 WHIP) is expected to get the ball Friday night at Dodger Stadium. In his last three starts, Hill has racked up three wins despite posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Hill has allowed an average of one homer per four innings in his last three starts. Against San Diego this season, Hill’s gone 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. In his lone start versus San Diego at Dodger Stadium this year, Hill threw a two-hitter with eight strikeouts and only one walk in an 11-1 Dodgers victory. Eleven home starts in 2018 have yielded a 4-4 record with a 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for Hill.

Where’s the value?

According to my calculations, Los Angeles has approximately a 65% chance to win this game Friday night at Dodger Stadium. The line will be too high a price to pay on the money line to justify a bet, so we’re going to take a shot on the run line here to give ourselves some value. San Diego doesn’t have anything to play for, and the Dodgers are a team on a mission. It doesn’t hurt that the Dodgers are 6-2 in their last eight against the run line either. We advocate for a bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 on the run line in this NL West Divisional showdown.