San Francisco at Milwaukee Value Pick

by | Last updated May 27, 2023 | mlb

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Saturday, May 27th, 4:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: BSWI
Money Line: Giants -101/Brewers -117
Total Line: 7.5

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Giants on Saturday, May 27th at American Family Field. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

ML RL Total
SF -101 -1.5 O 7.5 (-110)
MIL -117 +1.5 U 7.5 (-110)

Giants vs. Brewers Projected Lineup

Batting Order Position
LaMonte Wade Jr. 1 1B
Thairo Estrada 2 2B
J.D. Davis 3 3B
Michael Conforto 4 LF
Mitch Haniger 5 RF
Mike Yastrzemski 6 CF
Casey Schmitt 7 3B
Brandon Crawford 8 SS
Blake Sabol 9 C
Logan Webb SP


Batting Order Position
Christian Yelich 1 LF
Jesse Winker 2 DH
Willy Adames 3 SS
Rowdy Tellez 4 1B
William Contreras 5 C
Brian Anderson 6 3B
Brice Turang 7 SS
Tyrone Taylor 8 RF
Joey Wiemer 9 RF
Corbin Burnes SP


Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

San Francisco Giants: 26-25 SU / OU 24-25 / Runline 25-26
Milwaukee Brewers: 27-24 SU / OU 23-27 / Runline 24-27

On a record of 26-25, the Giants are 3rd in the NL West. Currently, they are 4.5 games out of the division lead. Against the Brewers, they will be seeking their 3rd straight win. On the road, they have a record of 11-14 while going 15-11 at home. San Francisco’s overall series record is 7-8.

  • The Giants have covered the runline in two straight games and have a season-long run margin of -0.0.
  • The Giants have been favored in 45.1% of their games and have runline records of 13-13 and 12-13 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Giants have an over/under record of just 24-25.

Against the Giants, the Brewers are looking to shake a two two game losing streak. Yet, their record of 27-24 is stil good for 1st in the NL Central. At home, Milwaukee has gone 15-11 and 12-13 on the road. So far, their overall series record is 8-8.

  • The Brewers have two straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -0.4.
  • The Brewers have been favored in 54.9% of their games and have runline records of 11-15 and 13-12 at home and on the road, respectively
  • So far, the Brewers have an over/under record of just 23-27.

Pitching Matchup

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Logan Webb 10 10 65 3-5 2.91 1.11 8


Today will be Logan Webb’s 11th appearance this season and he has an overall record of 3-5. His current ERA stands at 2.91 and OBP allowed of .286. So far, he struckout 65 batters and has a WHIP of 1.11. On the road, his ERA is 4.45 compared to 1.61 at home.

Logan Webb earned a quality start in his most recent outing, pitching six innings and giving up zero runs. Despite his solid performance, the Giants were unable to beat the Marlins and lost by a score of 1-0.

Pitcher Appearances Started IP Record ERA WHIP HR
Corbin Burnes 10 10 56 4-4 3.97 1.22 9


The Brewers will turn to starter Corbin Burnes who has an overall record of 4-4. Through 10 appearances, his ERA stands at 3.97 with a K/9 figure of 0.9. So far, he has put together of FIP of 4.81 to go along with an OBP of .301.

The last time, Burnes took the mound, he lasted five innings, as the Brewers fell to the Astros (12-2). Individually, Burnes gave up seven hits leading to five earned runs.

Giants vs. Brewers Offense Outlook

With a total of 71 home runs hit so far this season, the Giants are among the top home run hitting teams in baseball (6th). This has translated to an average of 4.5 runs per game and a collective batting average of .246. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .427 compared to .379 at home.

San Francisco Giants Top Bats

BA OBP SLG RBI HR SB
Thairo Estrada .301 .345 .466 17 6 13
Michael Conforto .241 .342 .468 26 11 2
J.D. Davis .278 .350 .500 29 9 0


San Francisco Giants Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Michael Conforto .453 9 7 3 .963
J.D. Davis .188 4 5 1 .458
Mitch Haniger .212 4 2 1 .412
Patrick Bailey .346 6 1 0 .458
Casey Schmitt .220 5 3 0 .270


This season, Milwaukee is currently ranked 25th in the league in terms of runs scored, averaging 4.0 runs per game. Their home run count currently stands at 62, which is 12th in the MLB. The team’s batting average of .234 is 22nd in the league, including 17th on the road compared to 27th at home.

Milwaukee Brewers Top Hitters vs. Righties

Player BA HR SLG WOBA
Christian Yelich .272 6 .456 .349
Brian Anderson .256 6 .450 .339
Rowdy Tellez .258 11 .556 .375
Willy Adames .212 7 .401 .292
Brice Turang .246 3 .356 .294


Milwaukee Brewers Top Hitters: Last Five Games

Player BA H R HR SLG
Owen Miller .217 4 3 2 .567
Brian Anderson .233 4 2 1 .483
Willy Adames .100 2 1 1 .300
Rowdy Tellez .396 5 1 1 .646
Christian Yelich .233 4 1 0 .350


Free MLB Pick

Despite recording a quality start in seven out of his ten games this season, Logan Webb holds a 3-5 record due to lack of run support. However, the tide may be turning with the Giants putting up four or more runs in five of their last six games. The lone exception was against Joe Ryan (7-1 2.21 ERA) and the Twins.

They’ll be facing off against Corbin Burnes, who indeed possesses strong statistics against this Giants lineup. Yet, 2023 hasn’t seen him at his peak, and he’s coming off a shaky performance against the Astros, where he conceded four home runs. Given these factors, I’m putting my money down on the Giants at +100.

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