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San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Pick

by | Jul 2, 2018 | mlb

National League West rivals clash as the Giants and Rockies open a three-game series in Denver Monday night (8:40 ET). Which way are we leaning with our free betting prediction on this game?

The MLB Betting Line

Most of Monday’s MLB betting odds opened San Francisco and Madison Bumgarner at around -125 over Colorado and Kyle Freeland, with an over/under of 10. The early betting action then pushed that line down about a dime, to around -115.

The Giants could also be found getting +130 giving the run and a half on the run line at the sportsbooks offering reduced juice on baseball games.

Set-Up

San Francisco just swept three games at NL West-leading Arizona over the weekend, winning 2-1, 7-0 and Sunday 9-6. The Giants banged out 16 hits Sunday, after rapping out 12 Saturday night.

So San Francisco is 4-0 over its last four series and 10-2 over its last 12 games.

Big-picture, at 45-40 the Giants are now tied for second place in the NL West with the Dodgers, 2.5 games behind the Diamondbacks. San Fran is also only 1.5 games behind Philadelphia in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

Colorado, meanwhile, just took two of three games in LA over the weekend, winning 3-1 both Friday and Saturday but falling Sunday 6-4. The Rockies led 4-2 Sunday into the bottom of the fifth but eventually lost it on a Matt Kemp homer in the bottom of the eighth.

Colorado’s been running hot-and-cold as of late. Before Sunday, the Rockies had won three in a row; but just before that they’d lost four straight; just before that they won four in a row; and just before that they lost three straight.

At 41-43 overall Colorado sits six games back in the NL West and five games out in that NL wild-card race.

These divisional rivals have split 10 meetings so far this season; most recently the Giants took two of three from the Rockies out by the Bay last week.

For a better understanding of the MLB metrics and how to use them in your baseball handicapping check out this guide on How to handicap MLB games.

Monday’s Mound Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last Wednesday, a 1-0 Giants victory at AT&T Park.

Lefty Freeland (7-6, 3.29), by our strict standards, is 9/16 on quality starts this season, and three for his last three. Last Wednesday he held this San Francisco outfit scoreless on four hits through seven innings, and over his last three starts he’s allowed just four runs through 20 innings. Colorado is 8-8 with Freeland this year, with the unders going 12-4.

In three starts already this season against the Giants Freeland allowed four runs through 19 innings. The Rockies won two of those games, and the unders went 2-1.

Fellow southpaw Bumgarner (1-2, 2.51) is 3/5 on quality starts, and two for his last two. Last Wednesday he held this Colorado outfit scoreless on two hits through seven innings, and just before that he held San Diego scoreless on three hits through eight innings. San Francisco is 2-3 with Bumsie this year, with the unders going 4-1.

Monday’s Batting Splits

The Giants rank 15th in the Majors this year against left-handed pitching with a .244 team batting average, 20th with a .310 team OBP and 19th with a .393 team slugging percentage.

The Rockies rank 6th against LHP with a .268 BA, 10th with a .332 OBP and 3rd with a .451 slugging percentage.

Now, these numbers seem to indicate a Colorado advantage with the sticks here. But both teams’ numbers are undoubtedly affected by their home ballparks. So we’re going to give the Rockies an edge in this department for Monday, but not by much.

The Bullpens

The San Francisco bullpen ranks 9th in the ML with a 3.68 ERA and 10th with a 1.27 WHIP, while going 21/37 on save conversions.

The Colorado pen ranks dead last - 30th - in ERA at 5.52 and 28th in WHIP at 1.48 while going 26/41 on save chances.

Again, home ballparks play a part in these numbers, but we’ll give the Giants the check-mark in the bullpen comparison.

Totals Report

The totals are split 18-18 in games played at Coors Field this season, even though they’re averaging a ML-high 11.9 runs per. Obviously, high totals are playing their part in making things tough on totals bettors.

The overs are 5-3-2 in this season series, as Giants-Rockies games are averaging 10.2 runs per. And those three games played in Denver last week averaged 12.3 runs.

Free MLB Picks

Bumgarner appears to be rolling into form, as does his team. And it’s not often you can get Bumsie at such a short price. We’re betting San Francisco here. Get more opinions on the games each day in our MLB Picks Forum.

Baseball Sportsbooks

10¢ to: 20¢ to:
-200 -279
Heritage
-200 -240
5Dimes
-195 -266