San Francisco Giants vs. LA Dodgers NLDS Game 4 Pick
San Francisco Giants (109-56) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (108-58)
When: 9:35 p.m., Tuesday, October 12
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
Moneyline: SF +130/LAD -150 (BetOnline - Awesome live wagering platform! One of oldest books online! Often times has opionated lines that vary from other sportsbooks! Worth checking out!)
Runline: Giants +1.5/Dodgers -1.5
Starting Pitchers: Anthony DeSclafani vs. TBD
When the Dodgers set about trying to repeat as World Series champions, the rotation figured to be one of their strongest assets in that goal. However, thanks to injury, off-field issues, and the results of the first three games of this series, the Dodgers’ strength has turned into a major liability when the team needs results most.
The Dodgers’ best plan was to either get the sweep or get two wins out of three from Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Max Scherzer, then muddle through Game 4 and hand the ball to Buehler in the decisive fifth game if needed. Instead, the Dodgers’ bats went cold in Game 1, and the wind blew their hits off course in Game 3, putting the Dodgers in a precarious position as they now need to win twice with only one of their aces really even available for this game.
With Clayton Kershaw injured and Trevor Bauer on administrative leave, none of the Dodgers’ options are really all that appealing in this contest. Either they’ll hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin, who hasn’t pitched a game since Sept. 30, and hope for the best, or they’ll bring Buehler back on three days’ rest, which he hasn’t done in his career. Either option is very risky, especially given that the Giants have now beaten Buehler in two straight games when he wasn’t on short rest. But at this point, the Dodgers don’t have a lot of options.
Anthony DeSclafani might have seemed to be running out of bullets earlier in the year, but the Giants’ pitcher has righted the ship and re-emerged as someone who gets the job done whether he’s at home or on the road. For the year, the Giants’ pitcher has an ERA of 3.22 away from home and 3.10 at Oracle Park, with the only real difference being that he gives up slightly more ground balls on the road than he does in San Francisco.
The only real weakness that DeSclafani has shown throughout the season is that he really hates pitching during the day. But with the AL West being won by the Astros and the Mariners not making the postseason, the Dodgers-Giants series has been the only one played west of the Central Time Zone at any point in the series. That’s left the late game slot as the exclusive property of the California teams, which means DeSclafani has been set up well to pitch his best.
Bunching Runs Together
The Dodgers seem to have a case of 1960 Yankees disease, as they’ve actually outscored San Francisco 9-7 for the series to this point. But the problem is, the Dodgers managed to bunch all of their runs into one game, while the Giants have simply done what they needed to do in the low-scoring contests.
That has to be the biggest frustration for the Dodgers: to this point in the series, they’ve been the more complete team. But when you waste Walker Buehler and Max Scherzer by providing zero runs in 18 innings of their games, you’re going to find yourself in big trouble as far as the series goes.
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- The Giants are 5-1 in their past six as an underdog.
- The Giants are 6-1 in their past seven Game 4’s
- The Dodgers are 43-13 in their past 56 games overall.
- The Dodgers are 8-3 in their past 11 NLDS home games.
- The under is 4-0-1 in the Giants’ past five road playoff games.
- The under is 4-0 in the Giants’ past four road games.
- The under is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ past six playoff games.
- The over is 5-2 in the Dodgers’ past six home games.
- The Giants are 8-3 in the past 11 meetings.
- The under is 7-3-1 in the past 11 matchups.
After the Dodgers were blown off course in Game 3, Game 4 should be a bit calmer. Winds will blow out to right field at nine miles per hour, and temperatures will sit at 70 degrees at first pitch.
Nothing has gone as expected in this series, as the Dodgers fell despite getting a gem from Scherzer and a decent performance from Buehler. The Dodgers are the favorite here, but I don’t trust Gonsolin off injury or Buehler on short rest. DeSclafani has been pitching better as of late, and the Giants seem to have good fortune on their side here.
I’ll back San Francisco for the upset. Be sure to check out our Week 6 NFL picks!