Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics Odds & Pick 9/21/21

by | Sep 21, 2021 | mlb

Seattle Mariners (81-69) vs. Oakland Athletics (82-68)
When: 9:40 p.m., Tuesday, September 21
Where: Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, Calif.
Moneyline: SEA +115/OAK -125 (Dimeline Baseball Betting)
Runline: Mariners +1.5/Athletics -1.5
Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Marco Gonzales (8-5, 4.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) vs. Paul Blackburn (1-2, 4.94 ERA, 1.57 WHIP)

Battle to the End

Seattle showed once again that it’s here to fight, as the Mariners came up with a win they absolutely had to have on Monday night, besting nemesis pitcher Sean Manaea in the process and ending Oakland’s five-game winning streak. Now the M’s have to keep it going by continuing their mastery of Oakland, as they’ve won six in a row against the Athletics to pull to within one game back of their division rivals and three behind AL wild card holder Toronto.

And yet, Seattle is still considered an underdog in this game (albeit a small one), a role that actually suits the Mariners much better than playing the favorite. For whatever reason, Seattle plays its best baseball when most of the country writes it off, as the Mariners are 69-39 for the year as a dog. If you’d backed Seattle to win every single game this season and made no other bets, you’d have returned 30 times your bet stash, simply because of the Mariners’ many times as an underdog. Other than San Francisco, the Mariners have been the best bet in baseball this year.

How Low Can They Go?

One thing that didn’t change with Oakland seeing its five-game winning streak stopped was the Athletics keeping their opponent from going too crazy with scoring runs, leading to yet another cash for the under. The under is 4-0-1 in the Athletics’ past five games, and that’s because the Athletics aren’t really a great hitting team (they rank 20th in batting average) and have been playing a set of opponents who have mostly cooperated with their offensive struggles by not getting the job done themselves.

Part of that is because of Oakland pitching, but having the right opponents has made a big difference as well. In their most recent series before this one, the Athletics scored just 11 runs in three games. They won all three because the punchless Angels only managed seven runs for the entire series. Seattle is also a light-hitting team, although the Mariners to tend to do just enough to win at the plate, which could make this contest a race to four again.

Stay in the Park

However, the under cashing again depends on whether Marco Gonzales has figured out how to stop giving up so many home runs. Over his past five starts, he’s given up eight home runs, leading to his past three appearances cashing on the over. One of those five starts came against Oakland, but the Mariners won the game anyway because the Athletics’ two home runs only produced three runs, and the Mariners again came up with the four they needed to win. What makes this a worrying trend is that half the home runs came in Seattle, one of the toughest parks in the majors for home run hitters. When a pitcher can’t keep the ball in the park at T-Mobile Park, they’re likely going to struggle more in other parks (and Gonzales did, as that multi-homer game was in Oakland).

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Betting Trends

  • The Mariners are 12-5 in their past 17 against the AL West.
  • The Mariners are 4-1 in their past five road games.
  • The Athletics are 5-1 in their past six as a favorite.
  • The Athletics are 3-7 in their past 10 Game 2’s of a series.
  • The under is 3-0-1 in the Mariners’ past four road games.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Mariners’ past seven against a team above .500.
  • The under is 4-0-1 in the Athletics’ past five on grass.
  • The under is 4-0-1 in the Athletics’ past five against the AL West.
  • The under is 7-1-1 in the past nine meetings in Oakland.
  • The Mariners are 5-1 in the past six meetings in Oakland.

Weather Report

The East Bay is a bit warmer than San Francisco at this time of year, and the temperatures will reflect that, as it’s supposed to be 80 degrees at first pitch with winds blowing out to right field at seven miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

With how well Seattle is playing against the Athletics right now, there’s no way that I’m going against the Mariners here. Oakland has not figured out its offense, and the Athletics look like they’re going to fall short in their playoff push.

Seattle does as well, but the Mariners also look like they’re going to give it everything before succumbing. I’ll back Seattle and the under here.

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