RBD breaks down an NBA total play on Spurs vs Knicks with conflicting handicapping models, head-to-head trends, and a perfect 3-0 tiebreaker record pointing to the Under.
San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks
A Pick on the Total
It’s been over a month since I’ve recommended a bet on the NBA. I have one today. But first . . .
When I turned 40, I went for my annual physical and the doctor said, “Because you’re 40 we have to add a prostate exam to your checkup.”
I said, “Sure, no problem, whatever you need to do.”
Then he told me what it involved, and I said, “Get the F outta here.”
The guy had a wicked sense of humor and I thought he was joking with me.
He wasn’t.
That was the last time I went for an annual physical.
But I digress from today’s topic.
With good reason as I’ll explain.
I’ve often written about how everything in life is connected, including sports betting.
When things are going well, everything seems to go well.
Opposite of that, if you go to work Monday morning and get laid off, and some texting-while-driving ass clown rear ends you on your way home, and you get home to find a Dear John letter from your wife, who not only left you but took the dog too, it’s probably not a good idea to make a bet on Monday night Football.
(None of that happened to me except the texting-while-driving ass clown part.)
There’s a reason for the saying, “When it rains it pours.”
So fair warning before anyone rides along with me on tonight’s bet – it’s not just raining in my world, it’s pouring.
My doctor informed me yesterday that I have to have a colonoscopy.
No getting around it.
So, yeah – I’m not feeling too lucky today.
And now back to our regularly scheduled article.
Paraphrased from my last article regarding the NBA, dated May 11th:
“I’m shutting down my NBA season after a nice 7-1 run in the playoffs puts me at 40-26 for the season, 60%. But I’m still ‘capping the games so my charts will have a full season of data (data I can hopefully use to my advantage next season.)”
A W percentage of 60% with close to 70 picks given is a bit of OK, eh? It means I didn’t just win my Battle with the Books for the WNBA ’25/26 season, I kicked bookie butt.
So I shut down my NBA play and adjusted my concentration and morning handicapping time to fully focus on the WNBA.
But like I said in the article, I still track and chart my plays on the NBA, so I’ll have a full season worth of stats to use next year.
As it turns out, I’m not done yet.
My T1 model says tonight’s game stays Under.
T1 is 13-6 in the postseason, and a perfect 6-0 on Unders.
My other model for totals, T2, says the game goes Over.
T2 has a record of 40-37 on Overs this postseason. With standard juice added that’s a breakeven record.
But here’s what I really like about this game. When the two models went Head to Head during the playoffs, with T1 on an Under and T2 on an Over, T1 has a perfect 3-0 record.
And SA is 2-0 in the T1 Under spot during this postseason while New York in T2 Over spots has a losing record of 5-7.
Two of their three playoff games have stayed Under today’s total, and four of all five games these two have played this season have stayed Under the number on tonight’s game.
The line opened at 216’ and that’s where it’s still sitting at the dozen books I just checked.
But I noticed some of them have added extra juice on the Over so because it might be heading that way I’ll wait a little bit longer to see if it continues to go up.
My play (despite my doctor’s diagnosis):
SA/NY Un (wait to buy)
