St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox Free Pick & Analysis

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox
Date: Saturday, May 13th, 4:10 ET
Location: Fenway Park
TV: NESN
Money Line: Cardinals +110/Red Sox -130
Total Line: 10

Betting Preview

Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Boston Red Sox and the Cardinals on Saturday, May 13th at Fenway Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.

Betting Odds

Cardinals vs. Red Sox Projected Lineup

	Batting Order	Position
Tommy Edman	1	SS
Paul Goldschmidt	2	1B
Willson Contreras	3	DH
Nolan Arenado	4	3B
Dylan Carlson	5	CF
Juan Yepez	6	LF
Paul DeJong	7	SS
Lars Nootbaar	8	RF
Andrew Knizner	9	C
Steven Matz	–	SP




	Batting Order	Position
Alex Verdugo	1	LF
Justin Turner	2	DH
Rob Refsnyder	3	RF
Rafael Devers	4	3B
Enrique Hernández	5	SS
Masataka Yoshida	6	LF
Jarren Duran	7	CF
Connor Wong	8	C
Enmanuel Valdez	9	2B
Chris Sale	–	SP




Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record

St. Louis Cardinals: 14-25 SU / OU 21-18 / Runline 17-22
Boston Red Sox: 22-17 SU / OU 26-12 / Runline 22-17

The Cardinals head into today’s game vs. the Red Sox with an overall record of 14-25. This mark has them sitting 5th in the NL Central. Currently, they are 7.5 games out of the division lead. Over their last five games, they are 4-1 and have a road and home record of 8-12 and 6-13, respectively. St. Louis’ overall series record sits at 3-8.

• The Cardinals have covered the runline in 43.6% of their games and have an average run margin of -0.5
• The Cardinals have been favored in 56.4% of their games and have runline records of 6-13 and 11-9 at home and on the road, respectively
• The over has hit in 54% of the Cardinals’ 39 games at 21-18.

With an overall record of 22-17, the Red Sox are in 4th place in the AL East, trailing by 7.5 games. Over their last ten games, they are above .500 at 7-3. On the road, the Red Sox have a mark of 9-9 while going 13-8 at home. Their overall series mark stands at 8-3.

• The Red Sox have covered the runline in 56.4% of their games and have an average run margin of 0.5
• The Red Sox have been favored in 38.5% of their games and have runline records of 11-10 and 11-7 at home and on the road, respectively
• The over has hit in 68% of the Red Sox’s 39 games at 26-12.

Pitching Matchup




In today’s game, St. Louis starter Steven Matz will look to do a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark as he has given up a home-run in five straight appearances. Overall, he has put together a record of 0-4 and ERA of 5.70. In total, he has racked up 33 strikeouts and has a K/9 figure of 8.17. In terms of walks, he has issued an average of 3.72 per innings.

Looking back at Matz’s last appearance, he allowed five hits across 5 1/3 innings of work. Overall, he finished with one earned run. Despite not factoring into the decision, the Cardinals won by a score of 12-6 over the Tigers.




The Red Sox will turn to starter Chris Sale who has an overall record of 3-2. Through seven appearances his ERA stands at 6.37 with a K/9 figure of 1.3. So far, he has put together of FIP of 3.95 to go along with an OBP of .350.

Boston is hoping that Chris Sale can help guide them to another win, as they defeated the Phillies (5-3) the last time he pitched. He finished the game with three earned runs on seven hits across six innings.

Cardinals vs. Red Sox Offense Outlook

With a total of 48 home runs hit so far this season, the Cardinals are among the top home run hitting teams in baseball (9th). This has translated to an average of 4.5 runs per game and a collective batting average of .261. When playing on the road, their slugging percentage is .391 compared to .440 at home.

St. Louis Cardinals Top Hitters On The Road




St. Louis Cardinals Top Hitters: Last Five Games




The Red Sox come into the game ranked 3rd in the league on an average of 5.7 runs per game. When it comes to home runs, Boston is 6th, having hit the ball out of the park 51 times. Their overall batting average stands at .269. On the road, they are hitting .232 while .290 at home.

Boston Red Sox Team Hitting Stats




Boston Red Sox Top Hitters: Last Five Games




Free MLB Pick

Chris Sale has shown improvement in recent outings after a rough start to the season. He has recorded three quality starts in his last four games, indicating a positive trend in his performance. It’s worth noting that Sale hasn’t faced the Cardinals since 2015, with limited experience against individual batters such as N. Arenado (1 for 3) and W. Contreras (0 for 3).

On the other hand, St. Louis starter Steven Matz had his best outing of the 2023 season in his latest start, pitching 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Tigers. However, his overall performance has been subpar, as he has allowed four or more runs in four out of his seven starts. The Cardinals have only managed to win one game when Matz has been on the mound.

Considering Sale’s recent improvement and the inconsistencies in Matz’s performances, I am confident in laying the -130 on the Red Sox for this game. The potential of Sale’s quality starts, combined with the Cardinals’ struggles to provide run support for Matz, make the Red Sox a favorable betting option.

In summary, with Chris Sale showing improvement in recent outings and the Cardinals’ inconsistency in run production behind Steven Matz, I recommend laying the -130 on the Red Sox for this game. Sale’s quality starts and the Cardinals’ limited success against him make the Red Sox a confident choice in this matchup.