Tampa Bay Rays (23-10) David Price, at Los Angeles Angels (15-20)
Jered Weaver, Angel Stadium, Anaheim, Calif., 7:05 PM EST, Wednesday,
May 12th, 2010
by Badger of Predictem.com
Betting Line: Rays -115/Angels +105
A couple of young aces headline the rubber match between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium Wednesday, as lefty
David Price toes the rubber for the Rays against the Angels Jered
Weaver for a rare late-afternoon getaway game in Anaheim.
The Rays assured that Wednesdays game winner would win the series by
taking last nights game, 7-2, behind a 7-plus inning two-run effort
from starting pitcher Jeff Niemann. Evan Longoria hit his eight
homerun, a three-run jack in the 7th, to put the Rays comfortably
ahead 6-1, but Grant Balfour bailed Niemann out of a bases-loaded jam
in the bottom of the inning to preserve the Rays MLB-leading 23rd
victory of the year.
The Angels won the series opener Monday 5-4 on a Juan Rivera RBI
sacrifice fly in the 11th inning, but for the most part have been
kept in check by the Rays outstanding pitching having just eight hits
in each of the first two games in the series.
The rubber match will pit two of the best young arms in the game
against each other, as both Price and Weaver are 4-1 on the season
and feature electric stuff off the bump.
The Oddsmakers have this game handicapped as a near dead-even matchup, with Price and the MLB-leading Rays given the slight edge at -115
odds on the moneyline. That means the sportsbooks that offer
dimelines list the Angels as home underdogs as high as +105 on the
The over/under total is listed at 8 across the board at every
sportsbook except for one, with 5Dimes listing the total at 9 with
large -145 odds on the under.
If this game follows the statistics, then it should be over quickly in a 1-0 or 2-1 fashion, because both pitchers have numbers galore to
back them up.
Price seems to be getting stronger of late since his ridiculous 0.99 WHIP and 1.91 ERA have actually gone down over his last three starts
(0.75 WHIP, 0.79 ERA). He also held the Angels to just two hits and
one run in the Rays 11-1 victory over them last June, but six walks
and a high pitch count limited him to just 4.1 innings of work.
Weaver has equally good splits for the season (2.66 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .
263 OBP), the Angels have won five of his seven starts, and his
career numbers against the Rays (3-0 in 4 starts, 1.134 WHIP, .285
OBP, .695 OPS) indicate it would be unusual for him to NOT pitch well
in the finale.
Plus, both pitchers are historically strong during the day.
Price is 7-1 in 11 daytime starts with a 2.74 ERA, a 1.018 WHIP and a
low .608 OPS. Weaver is 17-5 in 27 daytime starts, with a 1.134 WHIP
and a sub-.700 OPS as well (.695), so the offense may have some
issues in the twilight hours of 4:00 to 6:00 PM Pacific time on the
Both teams have the day off Thursday, so I dont expect too many
regulars in the lineup to be rested despite the fact its getaway
day. Catcher Jeff Mathis is the only Angel to have more than one hit
off of Price in his career, so Id expect him behind the dish. Jason
Bartlett (2-for-10) and Carl Crawford (1-for-9) both have homered off
of Weaver, but thats it. Longoria has two doubles in five at-bats,
so look for Weaver to try and work around him when he can.
Tampa only won two games against the Angels last year (2-4), and
neither was at Angel Stadium on the road, so theyve already started
to erase their terrible 4-24 record in Los Angeles over the years.
The under is 10-1-1 in the Angels last 12 Wednesday games, its 7-1-3
in Weavers last 11 home starts, and its also 4-0 in Prices last
four starts and 7-2-2 in their last 11 games overall so its looking
like its a strong betting trend play if you fancy those types of
Badgers Pick: Price is absolutely dealing early on. No pun intended, but -105 is a great “price” for tonight’s game. Take the Rays to win.