Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Free Pick

by | Last updated Jul 5, 2022 | mlb

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Date: Tuesday, July 5th, 07:10 ET
Location: Fenway Park
TV: Bally Sports Sun
Money Line: Rays +115 / Red Sox -138 (BetNow)
Total Line: 9.5


Tampa Bay: Jeffrey Springs (3-2, 2.25)
Boston: Nick Pivetta (8-5, 3.23)

Rays Projected Lineup

Francisco Mejía C
Kevin Kiermaier CF
Isaac Paredes 3B
Harold Ramirez RF
Randy Arozarena LF
Yandy Díaz 3B
Taylor Walls SS
Ji-Man Choi 1B
Wander Franco SS
Jeffrey Springs P

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Christian Vázquez C
Bobby Dalbec 1B
Trevor Story 2B
Christian Arroyo SS
Alex Verdugo LF
Rafael Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez LF
Xander Bogaerts SS
Jarren Duran CF
Nick Pivetta P


Tampa Bay Rays: 43-37-0 SU / OU 36-39-5 / Run Line W/L 37-43-0
Boston Red Sox: 45-35-0 SU / OU 32-41-7 / Run Line W/L 45-35-0

The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, July 5th at Fenway Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Boston as the favorite (-138), with an OU line set at 9.5.

Recent Form

The Rays will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Red Sox by the score of 4-0. In the loss, Tampa Bay’s pitchers gave up 4 runs on 11 hits. With their 2 hits, the Rays could not muster a run. The loss came as Tampa Bay was the betting underdog, getting 100.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Rays and Red Sox stayed below the over-under line set at 9.5 runs. With this result, Tampa Bay’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 36-39-5.

In the Rays’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 3-2. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +3. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.06 runs per game. But, over this stretch this figure has bumped up to 5.2. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is just 12-12-2.

The Boston Red Sox will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Rays by 4 runs (4-0). In the win, the pitching staff didn’t allow a run on 2 hits. With their 11 hits, the Red Sox could only muster 4 runs. Boston picked up the win while being favored at -120.0. So far, the team has won 62.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Red Sox and Rays combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 32-41-7.

In their last 5 games, the Red Sox have put together a record of 3-2. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +4. Boston is still playing winning baseball, even with their offense averaging just 4.0 runs per game, compared to a season long mark of 4.73. On the season, Boston has won more than half of their series, going 13-10-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Tampa Bay Rays will send Jeffrey Springs to the mound with an overall record of 3-2. In his previous outings, Springs has lasted an average of 3.33 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.25. Hits have been hard to come by against the left-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.214. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Springs is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.2 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Jeffrey Springs has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 28%. This includes a per game average of 3.61 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.95 walks per contest.

Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox, with an overall record of 8-5. Currently, Pivetta has a strong ERA of just 3.23 while pitching an average of 5.89 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.212 against him. Per 9 innings pitched, Pivetta is giving up 0.96 home runs. Overall, Nick Pivetta has struck out 24.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 5.69 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Pivetta, as he is giving up 3.04 walks per outing.

Tampa Bay vs Boston History

For the season, the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox will be playing their 5th game of the season. So far, the teams have each won 2 times. The over-under record in this series sits at 0-4. The average run total in these games is 11.13 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.25 runs. Last season, Tampa Bay picked up the series win, 12 games to 11. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 15-8, with the average run total being 11.13 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 4.17 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games when playing Boston
  • Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Prediction

Heading into Tuesday’s AL East showdown between Tampa Bay and Boston, the Red Sox are the favorite on the moneyline. Look for the Rays’ offensive struggles to continue vs Nick Pivetta. Boston has now won 4 straight games with Pivetta on the mound. Over this stretch, he has given up just 6 runs across 28 innings. I like Boston on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Red Sox Moneyline

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