Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Moneyline Pick

Texas Rangers (2-8) vs. Seattle Mariners (6-5)

When: 9:40 p.m., Tuesday, April 19

Where: T-Mobile Park, Seattle

Moneyline: TEX +130/SEA -150

Runline: Rangers +1.5/Mariners -1.5

Total: 8

BAS Sportsbook: 5 cent overnight lines!

Starting Pitchers: Dane Dunning (0-0, 5.19 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) vs. Logan Gilbert (1-0, 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP)

Going Different Directions

When it comes to pitching, you’ve either got a group you can trust, or you don’t, and the Mariners fall into the latter category. One of the reasons that Seattle believes it’s going to end its long playoff drought this year is its bullpen, as the Mariners’ relievers have a team ERA of just 2.27, good for second in the American League behind the Yankees. To make matters better for Seattle, the bullpen has mostly done that against good offenses, as it’s played the Twins, Astros, and White Sox to start the year and come out no worse for the wear.

On the other hand, Texas has basically poured gasoline on the fire whenever it turns the game over to the bullpen. The Rangers already struggle to keep teams from scoring with their starters, but their bullpen makes things much worse by posting a 5.68 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Only Minnesota and Washington have a worse WHIP from the pen, and nobody can match the Rangers’ bullpen ERA for lack of success. That’s made the over an excellent bet in Texas’ starts to this point, as seven of the Rangers’ 10 games have seen the run total reach at least nine.

Pile It On Early

Of course, those who have actually seen Texas play know that the Rangers often don’t wait to hand the game over to the bullpen before letting the floodgates open. If you’re betting first fives, going with the over on Texas has been a great option because the Rangers are giving up four runs on average in the first five innings. That ranks last in the majors, but it’s not the only reason to back a first five over with Texas.

Somehow, the Rangers are even better at scoring runs early than they are at giving them up, as Texas scored 4.6 runs per game in the first five innings. Some of that is inflated by their first series with the Blue Jays when they got rolling early and cooled off in the back half of games, but there’s no doubt that Texas is both a team that likes to score quick and one that can’t really stop anyone on offense.

Building Off the Past

In this day and age, a starter going five innings or more almost qualifies as an innings eater, and Logan Gilbert has done that so far for the Mariners in holding the Twins and White Sox to one run each. Against the Sox, he was a shade better than he was against Minnesota, as he didn’t give up a single earned run and cruised to a 5-1 victory over Chicago.

So far, Gilbert appears to be making real progress in his second season in the majors, as he’s sliced his ERA from 4.68 a year ago to the current mark of 0.90. He’s not really been a great strikeout pitcher to this point in his career, but at age 24, he’s still got plenty of time to figure out whether he wants to pitch to contact or go for the K. Right now, he’s getting outs, and that’s all that matters with the Mariners’ lack of run support.

Betting Trends

• The Rangers are 27-57 in their past 84 games overall.
• The Rangers are 21-44 in their past 65 against the AL West.
• The Mariners are 17-4 in their past 21 against a team that scored two runs or less in their previous game.
• The Mariners are 19-7 in their past 26 against the AL West.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Rangers’ past five overall.
• The over is 6-1 in the Rangers’ past seven as a road underdog.
• The over is 5-1 in the Mariners’ past six against the AL West.
• The over is 7-2 in the Mariners’ past nine games as a home favorite
• The Mariners have won 21 of 27 against Texas.
• The under is 4-1 in the teams’ past ten meetings.

Weather Report

With light rain in the forecast and temperatures not projected to get above 52 degrees in this game, expect the Mariners to close the roof.

Dan’s pick

Seattle is the better team and should continue the Texas misery. The Rangers are simply allowing teams to build their batting averages at their expense, and I don’t think that changes in this one. The Mariners are hitting better than in past years and should be able to get a handle on this game fairly early. I’m taking Seattle in this one. Note: Rough week? Instead of re-depositing at your sportsbook and getting NOTHING, consider trying out a new book where you can get a 50% or 100% real cash bonus! Check out our full list of online sportsbook bonuses! “Free Loot is Good Loot!”