The Power of Betting MLB Underdogs
by Jerald of Predictem.com
Betting baseball is a different animal from other major sports for most sports bettors. Most of us are used to betting basketball and football where the pointspread is the equalizer. In baseball we have a different aspect that creates an equal playing field. When betting baseball you have to lay increased vigorish if you choose to wager on the favorite. Depending on how great the favorite is will determine how much vigorish you will have to lay.
Conversely, if you choose to bet on the underdog you will actual get a premium on your bet if it wins. The difficult thing for many bettors to overcome is that you are betting on an inferior team that actually has to win the game in order to collect your bet. Despite that fact let’s look at some of the advantages of playing the underdogs and some factors that may lead to good underdog picks.
Advantage #1 – You know that a team is going to give the best effort possible to try to win the game and there is no chance at a back door cover.
Advantage #2 – You can actually win money over time even if your winning percentage is 50% or below. The reason for this is that you are collecting more on your winners than you are paying for your losers.
Advantage #3 – When backing the underdog you will usually be against the public. There are many thoughts on this but typically the public loses so I would prefer to be on the side that the sportsbook is rooting for.
How to spot a good underdog play:
#1 – Look for teams that are a small underdog with a better starting pitcher. This may seem obvious but oftentimes you will see a team that has their ace pitcher on the mound who has a chance to totally shutdown the opponent and they will be the underdog.
#2 – Look for teams with a better bullpen. This is a factor that is often overlooked by bettors but it is a strong component to a winning team. The better teams have a strong bullpen so if the team you are backing has an advantage it will greatly increase the chances of a winning wager.
#3 – Lefty/Righty situations. Some teams really struggle when facing left-handed pitching. If a team is facing a leftie make sure you know how they perform against them.
#4 –Look at past performance. Look at the team’s record for their last 10 games, we want to wager on teams that are playing well. If a team is in a losing pattern, don’t assume that they are likely to snap out of it.
#5 – Streaks – Baseball is a streaky game and we don’t want to bet against the streaks. Many gambler’s succumb to the “Gamblers Fallacy” of a team is due to win. Don’t let that happen to you and chase a team on an extended losing streak.
Betting the underdogs is not a get rich quick scheme but if you are selective in your wagers it is a nice way to grind out some profits over the long course of the season. Remember, it is a marathon and not a sprint and you could come up with some nice gains over the course of a season.
The best MLB underdog lines can be found at: Bovada Sportsbook.