Tigers vs. Astros Picks & Predictions

by | Last updated May 7, 2022 | mlb

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros

Date: Saturday, May 7th, 04:05 ET

Location: Minute Maid Park

TV: ATT SportsNet-SW

Money Line: Tigers +153 / Astros -185 (Everygame – Go through our link, deposit $25, then enter bonus code ROOKIE200 and they’ll give you an extra FIFTY BUCKS!)

Total Line: 8


Detroit: Eduardo Rodriguez (0-2, 5.33)
Houston: Framber Valdez (1-2, 3.42)


Detroit Tigers: 8-17-0 SU / OU 9-16-0 / Run Line W/L 10-15-0
Houston Astros: 16-11-0 SU / OU 8-19-0 / Run Line W/L 13-14-0

The Houston Astros host the Detroit Tigers on Saturday, May 7th at Minute Maid Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-185), with an OU line set at 8.

Recent Form

After suffering a 1 run loss to the Astros (3-2), the Tigers will look to get back in the win column. In the losing effort, the pitching staff still held the Astros to just 3 runs on 7 hits. Offensively, they finished with just 2 on 2 hits. Detroit’s loss came as the underdogs, getting 200.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Tigers and Astros fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. With this result, Detroit’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 9-16-0.

In their last 5 games, the Tigers are below .500, at 1-4. This mark has come on a an average run margin of just -9. A key reason for Detroit’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 2.4 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 3.04. Detroit’s overall series record is just 1-7-1.

The Astros are coming off a tight 3-2 win over the Tigers. For the game, the pitching staff held the Tigers to 2 on 2 hits. Houston picked up the win while being favored at -220.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 20 games, winning at a rate of 65.0%. Houston now has an over-under record of 8-19-0.

The Astros come into the matchup looking to stay hot, going 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 14. Offensively, Houston’s lineup has been steady 4.0 runs per game over their last 5 contests. For the season, the team comes in with a per game average of 3.78. Houston has a below .500 series record of just 4-4-1.

Pitching Matchup

For the Tigers, Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 0-2. To date, Rodriguez has an ERA of 5.33 while lasting an average of 5.02 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.248. Despite opposing team’s finding success getting on base against Rodriguez, he has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing 1 home run per 9 innings. Up to this point, Rodriguez’s has a strikeout percentage of 21.0% and a per 9 average of 4.6. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.84 walks per contest.

For the Astros, Framber Valdez gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-2. Leading up to the game, Valdez has an ERA of 3.42. So far, he is averaging 5.22 innings per outing. On the season, Valdez has been able to limit base runners, with a batting averge allowed of just 0.194. In addition, he has yet to give up a home run. Heading into today’s action, Framber Valdez is averaging 3.8 K’s per 9 innings. Throughout the season, walks have been an issue, as he is giving up 4.78 free passes per outing.

Detroit vs Houston History

So far, the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers have met up 2 times, with Houston winning the season series 2-0. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 0-2, with the average run total sitting at 7.86 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 1.0 run. Going back to last year, Detroit won the season series, 5 games to 2. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the two teams averaged 7.86 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.57 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit’s last 5 games when playing Houston
  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros Prediction

In this matchup, there isn’t a lot of value on taking Houston on the moneyline. Instead, I recommend taking the under at 8 runs. Even as the favorite, Houston has had its problems on offense, coming in with a mediocre scoring offense vs left-handed pitching. On the other side, Detroit has the 28th rated slugging percentage against lefties.

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