Tigers vs. Guardians Odds & Predictions 7/14/22

by | Jul 14, 2022 | mlb

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
Date: Thursday, July 14th, 07:10 ET
Location: Progressive Field
TV: Bally Sports Detroit
Money Line: Tigers +156 / Guardians -190 (Everygame)
Total Line: 8.0

STARTING PITCHING

Detroit: Elvin Rodriguez (0-2, 11.51)
Cleveland: Triston McKenzie (6-6, 3.47)

Tigers Projected Lineup

Spencer Torkelson 1B
Tucker Barnhart C
Jonathan Schoop 2B
Victor Reyes RF
Jeimer Candelario 3B
Robbie Grossman RF
Miguel Cabrera 1B
Riley Greene CF
Javier Báez SS
Elvin Rodriguez P

Guardians Projected Lineup

Nolan Jones RF
Austin Hedges C
Franmil Reyes LF
Andrés Giménez SS
José Ramírez 3B
Myles Straw CF
Josh Naylor 1B
Steven Kwan CF
Amed Rosario SS
Triston McKenzie P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Detroit Tigers: 37-52-0 SU / OU 32-53-4 / Run Line W/L 42-47-0
Cleveland Guardians: 43-44-0 SU / OU 40-42-5 / Run Line W/L 45-42-0

The Cleveland Guardians host the Detroit Tigers on Thursday, July 14th at Progressive Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Cleveland as the favorite (-190), with an OU line set at 8.0.

Recent Form

The Tigers are hoping to get back on track after falling to the Royals by a score of 5-2. In the loss, Detroit’s pitchers gave up 5 runs on 8 hits. On offense, the Tigers finished with 2 runs on 8 hits. The loss came as Detroit was the betting underdog, getting 100.0 on the moneyline. Combined, the Tigers and Royals fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. This outcome pushed Detroit’s over-under record further below .500 at 32-53-4.

After their 5 most recent games, the Tigers have gone just 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -9. During this stretch, the offense is averaging 3.0 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 3.18. Detroit’s overall series record is just 7-16-5.

The Guardians will look to bounce back from a tight 2-1 loss to the White Sox. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 8 hits. The Guardians’ offense ended the game with just 1 run on 5 hits. Leading into Cleveland’s loss, they were the underdogs, getting 100.0 on the moneyline. In their 42 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 38.0%. Combined, the Guardians and White Sox run total fell below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 40-42-5.

In their last 5 contests, the Guardians have just 2 wins, going 2-3. During this time, the team has a run differential of -5. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 2.8 runs over their last 5 game. On the season, Cleveland has won more than half of their series, going 12-11-5.

Pitching Matchup

Detroit will roll with Elvin Rodriguez (0-2) as their starter. So far, Rodriguez has put together an ERA of 11.51. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.02 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed, currently sitting at 0.326. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Rodriguez, averaging 4.03 homers per 9 innings pitched. Rodriguez is in the bottom half of the league in strikeouts, averaging just 3.2 K’s per game. This includes a strikeout percentage of 17.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 3.98 walks per contest.

The Cleveland Guardians will send Triston McKenzie to the mound with an overall record of 6-6. So far, McKenzie has put together an ERA of 3.47. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.82 innings. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.201 against McKenzie. This year, home runs have been an issue for McKenzie. So far, he has allowed 1.55 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Triston McKenzie has a strong K% of 23.0%, including a per game average of 5.25. Command has been a problem for McKenzie, as he is giving up 2.6 walks per outing.

Detroit vs Cleveland History

For the season, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians will be playing their 10th game of the season. So far, Detroit is leading the season series, 7-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-5. The average run total in these games is 8.79 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.78 runs. Cleveland won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 12 wins to 7. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 9-8, with the average run total being 8.79 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.95 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
  • Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland’s last 6 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland’s last 5 games

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s AL Central matchup between Detroit and Cleveland, the over-under total is set at just 8 runs. However, I recommend grabbing the over, as both the Tigers and Guardians are due for breakout offensive performances. The last 2 times Elvin Rodriguez has taken the mound, the games have finished with 11 and 13 runs, respectively.

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